The ASUN Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off Thursday, and, as tip-off gets closer, here’s a quick preview of each team entering the tournament this week:
#1 Liberty (20-5, 11-2)
This was supposed to be somewhat of a rebuilding season for Coach Ritchie McKay and the Flames, but he has proven that the Liberty program is here to stay for as long as he is at the helm. Behind Darius McGhee and Elijah Cuffee, the Flames have won nine straight games and are playing their best basketball over the past month of the season. Liberty has won five straight conference games by double digits, with three coming by 16 points or more including Saturday’s regular season finale at Bellarmine.
KenPom has Liberty as the overwhelming favorite, giving the Flames a 74.3% chance at winning the tournament, that’s even higher than last year when Liberty was pegged as a 74.1% chance at winning.
Bart Torvik gives Liberty a 67.1% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives Liberty a 63.2% chance at winning the tournament.
#2 Bellarmine (13-6, 10-3)
The Knights have been one of the feel good stories in all of college basketball and certainly in the ASUN in their first season in the league after moving up from the Division II ranks. Bellarmine was one of the strongest programs at that division, winning the national championship in 2011 and reaching the final four four times. After dropping their first two games in conference play, Bellarmine ran off 10 straight wins before losing to Liberty in the regular season finale. One interesting stat to ponder for the Knights this weekend – Bellarmine is 0-3 against the top 4 teams in the conference. They lost both games to Lipscomb, lost their only game against Liberty, and did not play North Florida. All three of their games against the top 4 teams came at home, as well.
KenPom gives Bellarmine an 14.5% chance at winning the tournament.
Bart Torvik gives Bellarmine a 17.5% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives Bellarmine a 17.6% chance at winning the tournament.
#3 Lipscomb (15-11, 9-6)
The Bisons won the ASUN tournament title in 2018 and have been in the championship game the last three seasons. Lipscomb has one of the more talented trios in the conference with big man Ahsan Asadullah and guards Romeao Ferguson and KJ Johnson. They are 3-1 against the top two teams in the league, so they have the potential to make another run this season.
KenPom gives Lipscomb a 6.0% chance at winning the championship.
Bart Torvik gives Lipscomb a 6.8% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives Lipscomb a 7.3% chance at winning the tournament.
#4 North Florida (8-14, 6-6)
The Ospreys get the benefit of being able to play in their own city. They could even play on their home floor depending on how the tournament plays. The last time the ASUN tournament was in Jacksonville was in 2015 when North Florida won the championship. UNF opens with what should be a very good quarterfinal game against North Alabama.
KenPom gives North Florida a 1.7% chance at winning the championship.
Bart Torvik gives North Florida a 1.9% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives North Florida a 2.6% chance at winning the tournament.
#5 North Alabama (11-10, 7-8)
In their third season at the DI level and in the ASUN, UNA was once at the top of the conference standings at 6-1 midway through league play. The Lions then dropped 7 straight before bouncing back in the regular season finale with a win over Lipscomb. North Alabama lost all four of their games against Bellarmine and Liberty and by an average of 16.5 points per game. The Lions have been ousted in the tournament’s first round in their first two seasons in the ASUN.
KenPom gives North Alabama a 0.9% chance at winning the championship.
Bart Torvik gives North Alabama a 1.3% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives North Alabama a 2.8% chance at winning the tournament.
#6 FGCU (9-7, 4-5)
FGCU has won the ASUN tournament three times (2013, 2016, 2017), more than any current member of the conference, but we don’t have a great read on this year’s Eagles. FGCU has been ravaged by COVID throughout the season, having only played 9 conference games and 16 total games. Three of their conference losses came after extended COVID breaks. FGCU hasn’t played Liberty, North Florida, or North Alabama this season. The Eagles did get a season split on the road against their quarterfinal opponent Lipscomb.
KenPom gives FGCU a 1.0% chance at winning the championship.
Bart Torvik gives FGCU a 1.3% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives FGCU a 3.8% chance at winning the tournament.
#7 Stetson (10-13, 7-9)
The Hatters are one of the more interesting teams in this week’s tournament. They have the talent to compete with the top of the league, as evidenced by their wins over Liberty and Lipscomb, but they also have losses to the likes of Kennesaw State and Jacksonville. It’s been difficult for any team to get the best of Stetson in the two-game series, as the Hatters split with everyone they played in conference play with the exception of being swept at Bellarmine, their quarterfinal opponent..
KenPom gives Stetson a 1.6% chance at winning the championship.
Bart Torvik gives Stetson a 3.5% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives Stetson a 2.5% chance at winning the tournament.
#8 Kennesaw State (5-18, 2-13)
After losing their first 27 ASUN games under head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, the Owls finished the regular season 2-2. Guards Spencer Rodgers and Chris Youngblood gives Kennesaw State a chance in every game they play. The road will be tough though as they open against top seed Liberty. The Owls are 0-6 all-time against Liberty.
KenPom gives Kennesaw State a 0.09% chance at winning the championship.
Bart Torvik gives Kennesaw State a 0.5% chance at winning the tournament.
Team Rankings gives Kennesaw State a 0.2% chance at winning the tournament.
TOURNAMENT SCHEDULE
MARCH 4 | QUARTERFINALS
At University of North Florida’s UNF Arena:
No. 1 Liberty vs No. 8 Kennesaw State, 2 pm, ESPN+
No. 2 Bellarmine vs No. 8 Stetson, 7 pm, ESPN+
At Jacksonville University’s Swisher Gym:
No. 4 North Florida vs No. 5 North Alabama, 2 pm, ESPN+
No. 3 Lipscomb vs No. 6 Florida Gulf Coast, 7 pm, ESPN+
MARCH 5 | SEMIFINALS
At University of North Florida’s UNF Arena:
Highest remaining seed vs. lowest remaining seed, 2 pm, ESPN+
Second-highest remaining seed vs second-lowest remaining seed, 7 pm, ESPN+
MARCH 7 | CHAMPIONSHIP
At University of North Florida’s UNF Arena, 2 pm, ESPN+
