Liberty may have created some doubts with the loss to Syracuse in week 4, but a dominant win last week vs top C-USA team UAB has the hype train once again full steam ahead for this Flames program. With Liberty favored in all of their next 4 matchups and only one of those teams without a losing record this season, it seems quite possible the Flames could role into the Ole Miss game in November 9-1 with a potential slot in the Top 25. However, if the Syracuse game proved anything, being favored does not equal wins, and Liberty can not afford to overlook any of the next 4 teams on the schedule, 2 of which hold previous wins against the Flames.
1. STAY ON THE GAS
Not overlooking begins by maintaining the intensity. Liberty delivered their first truly complete performance offensively and defensively last week with only 3 points given up by the first-string defense and 544 yards of total offense (the most this season). UAB was a big opponent for the Flames (a game they were not favored in) and you can bet Coach Freeze amped up the intensity in training last week, but it can be a little harder to stay as excited when you are coming into a matchup favored by 19 (per Vegas betting lines).
Liberty has been off to a bit of a shaky start this season but the increased focus and emphasis in training last week resulted in Liberty finally finding the consistency they have been looking for offensively with Willis looking efficient through the air and on the ground. The tendency may be to try and protect Willis if all his athleticism isn’t needed to win these next 4 games (a trend we saw in the first 3 contests) but Liberty needs to roll into Vaught-Hemingway Stadium next month as a well-oiled machine and the only way to do that is to keep operating their normal high-octane offense. There is the additional factor that if Liberty wants a shot of getting into the Top 25 (AP or CFP) after dropping a loss to Syracuse they will need to win dominantly and completely in each of their next 4 matchups.
2. SEE WHAT ONE BACK CAN DO
Liberty surprised a lot of people last year with an innovative 3-back approach that challenged defenses with 3 competing styles of speed, strength, and agility and resulted in a highly effective Liberty run game (252.4 yards per game). This season, Liberty is again going with the multi-back look but is only averaging 189.8 rushing yards per game (106.2 if Willis’ 83.6 rushing yards per game are removed) with no back rushing for over 60 yards in a single game despite each of the 3 starting backs on Liberty’s roster recording 100+ yard games last season.
Since nothing seems to be working in the ground game right now, perhaps it is time for Liberty to try the traditional approach again and pick a bell-cow back to take the majority of the carries to see if there is any change in the running game performance. Typically, a starting running back will get stronger as the game goes on with the defense wearing down and the back developing into a rhythm as he becomes more attuned to what the defense is doing and where the openings are.
With Liberty’s system, not one of the three backs gets to develop that essential rhythm and feel for defense and each back basically goes in cold with no momentum each drive. I will leave it up to the much better-informed coaches as to who the main back should be but if I had my choice I would probably go with Mack as he has abilities in the run and pass game and adds a combination of power and elusiveness unique among the three (although he has struggled more than any of the three main backs to get going so far this season).
3. SHOW US SALTER
Bennett has been great, in fact, he’s been more than great, he has been truly exceptional in the times he has come in to replace Willis after the game is well in hand with pinpoint throws and even a rushing TD. There were certainly some doubts when the initial depth chart was released about Bennett taking the second-string role, but he has more than justified the decision by the coaching staff as he has at times looked like a “mini Willis” with his maneuverability and downfield throwing ability.
However, the QB future is a little hazy for this Flames team next season as Willis will have a big decision to try and go pro as a likely first-round draft pick or stick around for another season. Bennett has proved he deserves to be the backup this year but the same QB battle for second that waged this year between Bennett and Flames newcomer Kaidon Salter (the highly recruited former Tennessee player) is sure to continue this offseason for the starting position should it become vacant. If the Flames follow my first key there should be plenty of time for the backups in this one and coaches would certainly like to have some game film of Salter to compare against Bennett as they make their decision next season. Bennett has surely proven what he can do for this team, it seems appropriate to give Salter a chance to do the same.
SUMMARY
Middle Tennessee is off to another poor start after not recording a winning season in 3 years and it seems unlikely that they will turn things around against the Flames. The Blue Raiders are giving up 250+ yards passing a game and another 170+ on the ground and Liberty’s offensive renaissance the last week (which really kicked off in the second half of the Syracuse game) spells trouble for the staggered Blue Raider D.
Fans may feel a bit more comfortable after the win against UAB but this Flames team certainly doesn’t with the indication being that the coaches and players still feel like they have a massive chip on their shoulder with something to prove. The MTSU offense shouldn’t present too much of a challenge to a Liberty defense that gives up a lot of yards but is stingy with points and the Blue Raider defense should be easy to carve up despite a struggling LU O-line. I predict the Flames move easily through this week 6 matchup and give the starters a chance to start thinking about next week’s game against UL Monroe early in the fourth quarter.
SCORE PREDICTION: Liberty 48 vs MTSU 17
Written by Mr. Exclamation Point
