Liberty is off to a 2-0 start for the second season in a row after starting off its first 2 seasons in the FBS 1-2 and 0-2. It’s been an exciting first 4 FBS seasons for the Flames, to say the least, who started off small (though admirably) with a 6-6 season their first year, an 8-5 season their second, and then (out of nowhere) a 10-1 season in their third! Needless to say, this is a very different team than the one that started off on their first full season in the FBS in 2018, and it will be a very different opponent that Old Dominion has to face after welcoming the Flames to the FBS with their first game and their first win 3 years ago.


1. DON’T OVERLOOK

The football world may not have known what to expect out of the little team from Lynchburg in 2018 but they sure do now. Liberty is favored by over 27 points in this week’s matchup and given a 92.6% chance of winning according to ESPN. With much bigger games and much more challenging opponents down the road (Syracuse next week and UAB the week after that), the tendency is certainly there to overlook the Monarchs as a guaranteed and easy win. The Flames can not afford to do that.

Liberty struggled out the gate against Campbell, an FCS school (even though they would end the game with a nice victory), and Old Dominion is not an FCS school. The Monarchs have out-recruited the Flames by overall recruiting class rankings 3 out of the last 4 years, so while Liberty may have the better team and definitely the better coaching staff, Old Dominion certainly has the players who can compete with the Flames. Liberty is also coming off a tough defensive matchup that saw the Flames claw their way to an 8 point victory while Old Dominion is coming in with a full head of steam after a 47-7 win over the FCS Hampton Pirates, with well-rested starters and game-tested backups. I’m not saying that Old Dominion is going to win this game (or that it will even be close) but on game day anything can happen, especially if one team is more motivated and prepared than the other. Remember, we beat Baylor.


2. ESTABLISH THE RUNNING GAME

Last year, Liberty’s trio of backs rushed for over 1,700 yards and averaged over 6 yards per carry. This season Liberty has yet to have a running back rush for over 100 yards on the season, and that’s with two games under their belt. The pressure on the passing game is showing with Willis looking less comfortable in the pocket as his receivers remain covered even when the line is able to block for him. Liberty has seen 9 drives stall out short of the endzone (5 coming just last week) and a big reason has been Liberty’s inability to rely on its ground game. Hugh Freeze is a ground and pound guy who likes to use the run to set up the pass and he has three terrific backs in Mack, Green, and Louis, so Liberty’s running struggles must be as frustrating for him as they are mysterious to us. Willis is a generational talent for the Flames, but even his magic cant win it alone. Liberty needs to take the time to let the run game sort itself out in this one because the chances to get this issue fixed are running out.


3. ALLOW WILLIS TO BREAK LOOSE

The first week Liberty was obviously trying to conceal its playbook a bit while also protecting Willis from unnecessary risks. In week two, the playbook was open, but Liberty still seemed to be limiting Willis a bit as they attempted to work out the kinks in the passing game. It wasn’t really until the last drive of the game, when Liberty really needed a touchdown to put Troy away, did the coaches seem to let Willis do his thing (and surprise, surprise it resulted in a 90-yard scoring drive).

Liberty can probably win this one easily without letting Willis loose and the thinking might be to limit Willis again to save him for the bigger matchups coming down the road but I think that’s a bad idea. This offense isn’t the same without Willis taking off and scrambling all over the place or getting designed QB run plays frequently sprinkled in. If Liberty wants to get back on track offensively, they have to give their offense the full look that it’s going to be experiencing the rest of the season.

Additionally, habits are a difficult thing to break, and if Willis gets into the habit of limiting himself, he may lose some of the magic that makes Liberty such a dangerous opponent. I’m not saying Willis should be headhunting and seeking out contact (like he tends to do), and he should definitely slide at the earliest opportunity, but I am saying that he needs to get his mojo back a little and get into a rhythm coming into Liberty’s first Power 5 matchup of the season next week.

SUMMARY

Liberty needs a big win to start getting into the national conversation if it wants any hope of making a decent showing in the Top 25 and rising out of another Cure Bowl bid. Troy looked like a good chance last week, with most analysts (including myself) predicting an offensive blowout, which obviously failed to materialize. I think however that Freeze is tired of his offense’s struggles so far and is ready to turn on the jet engines (a.k.a Malik Willis’ legs).

The defense took a huge step forward last week and I expect them to continue to show that they can have a game-changing impact. That coupled with an offense no longer self-limiting should allow Liberty to perform well in this one. Liberty shouldn’t overlook ODU, but the Monarchs shouldn’t present much of a challenge to the Flames, especially after the fire Freeze must have lit under the team this week in practice. Liberty won big last time these two teams met with a 52-10 beatdown, and I think another sizeable victory is in the cards in this week. Hopefully, ODU proves the spark this team needs to get them going the rest of the season.

SCORE PREDICTION: Liberty 48 vs ODU 17

Written by Mr. Exclamation Point