1. LEAN ON THE GROUND GAME:

If Willis is fully healthy, Liberty is definitely going to want to start him Saturday given the overall performance of Ferguson and Bennett last week against FCS team UNA. However, the last thing Liberty can afford is letting Willis get hurt again going into the Flames’ first ACC matchup against Syracuse next week. Relying more on the ground game like Liberty did vs WKU to start the season, will take the pressure off of Willis and hopefully limit the times he is hit. Liberty has three solid backs in Mack, Pickett and Louis (as well as a very competent fourth back in Henderson) and should have no issues moving the ball against a Warhawk defense which is giving up an average of 282.8 yards a game. Additionally, it has now been 2 weeks since Willis has seen real game action and it usually takes QBs (even exceptional ones) a few drives to get back into the flow of the game after a break due to injury. Taking pressure off of Willis in the form of the ground game will help him establish a rhythm early.

 2. SECONDARY, SECONDARY, SECONDARY

By far the most consistently weak part of Liberty’s defense has been the secondary. Liberty’s DBs and Safeties have routinely given up big plays and left receivers completely wide open. The Flames’ secondary has also shown the capacity to make big plays, most notably Butler’s 2 interceptions (one in the end zone) against UNA, but that is a bit more along the lines of being lucky vs having consistent coverage. Monroe is averaging 265 yards passing through the first 4 games and the Warhawks’ QB already has over 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. UL Monroe might have all zeros in the win column, but they have the offensive ability to turn this one into an upset if Liberty isn’t careful. If the Flames’ defense can take away the passing game, Monroe will be forced to go to their ground game, which has been absolutely abysmal so far, only averaging 50 yards rushing per game.

3. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE!

Maybe it was Liberty breaking in a new starting QB, maybe it was difficulty game planning with no film to study, or maybe it was the struggle of converting an offensive playbook from a mobile QB to a true pocket passer, but something was definitely off about the Flames’ last week vs UNA. In the pre-game show, two of the commentators predicted 49+ point victories (I myself predicted Liberty would put up 52), yet, against perhaps the weakest competition they have seen this year, Liberty struggled to score until midway through the second quarter and only managed to put up 28 points on their FCS foe. Coach Freeze talked about the unique situation of coming in as heavy favorites and how that can affect preparation and he wasn’t wrong. Liberty certainly seemed to underestimate UNA and they can’t afford to do the same against UL Monroe. The Flames are nearly 20 point favorites against the Warhawks (almost the same as they were against UNA) but they can’t let that go to their heads. Whereas UNA was dealing with two QBs who were playing their first game of the season, Monroe has a well-established QB under center who will be far more likely to take advantage of any opportunities Liberty affords him. Hopefully, Coach Freeze has his team better prepared both mentally and physically coming into this one.

SUMMARY

Assuming Willis is fully healthy, and the Flames come in prepared and ready, this should be another win to increase the streak to 4 to open the season for the Flames. Liberty’s O-Line has shown few issues winning the attack upfront and should open up plenty of holes for the stable of hungry LU backs. Willis is lucky to have such a deep and impressive lineup of receivers which should make it easier to adjust back into the game flow. Liberty’s D-Line is going to want to keep the pressure on the QB (something they have been exceptional at so far) and force him into hasty decisions which Liberty’s defense showed a keen ability to capitalize on last game. Expect this game to be tighter than the predicted spread (as all of Liberty’s games have been so far) but that the Flames will come out with a nice win to advance to 4-0. This is the last chance for Liberty to work out any kinks before the schedule really toughens up.  

FINAL SCORE: Liberty 37 vs UL Monroe 24

Written by Mr. Exclamation Point