This week illustrated what a difference one week of college football can mean in the FCS. There were definitely some unexpected results, but nothing that totally rocked the big picture. These last few weeks of the season will be eventful, so expect big changes as we work our way towards the final projections. A lot can change, but right now it looks like the choices for the committee are going to be a little foggier this season than last.
How last year’s playoff teams did in Week 9:
#4 North Dakota State (4-1, 7-1): Beat Northern Iowa 24-20
#2 Jacksonville State (4-0, 7-1): Beat #23 Eastern Illinois 47-14
#6 Richmond (4-1, 7-1): Idle
#9 Charleston Southern (2-0, 5-2): Beat Bucknell 49-28
#5 Citadel (6-0, 8-0): Beat Eastern Tennessee State 45-10
#10 Chattanooga (6-1, 8-1): Beat Western Carolina 38-25
Fordham (2-1, 5-3): Lost to Lehigh 58-37
New Hampshire (5-1, 6-3): Beat #22 Stony Brook 43-14
Colgate (2-1, 3-4): Beat Holy Cross 26-8
#1 Sam Houston State (7-0, 8-0): Beat Texas Southern 66-17
Southern Utah (3-3, 4-4): Beat Idaho State 52-27
McNeese State (4-3, 5-4): Beat Abilene Christian 33-14
#8 JMU (5-0, 7-1): Beat Rhode Island 84-7
#16 Montana (2-3, 5-3): Lost to #3 Eastern Washington 35-16
#7 South Dakota State (4-1, 5-3): Lost to Illinois State 38-21
Northern Iowa (2-3, 3-5): Lost to #4 North Dakota State 24-20
#23 Eastern Illinois (3-3, 5-4): Lost to #2 Jacksonville State 47-14
William & Mary (1-4, 3-5): Lost to Maine 35-28
Duquesne (2-1, 5-3): Beat Bryant 35-31
Dayton (5-1, 7-2): Beat Stetson 21-10
#13 Western Illinois (3-2, 6-2): Beat South Dakota 35-34
Portland State (1-4, 2-6): Lost to Northern Colorado 56-49 OT
Illinois State (2-4, 4-5): Beat #7 South Dakota State 38-21
#18 Coastal Carolina (6-2): Beat Presbyterian 48-17 (Coastal not eligible for FCS playoffs in 2016)
Other Notable Results:
#17 North Dakota (6-0, 7-2): Beat Weber State 27-19
#19 Central Arkansas (6-0, 7-1): Beat SE Louisiana 45-10
#25 Tennessee State (2-2, 5-3): Lost to Murray State 38-31
Here are the projections after Week 9
National Seeds:
1 Sam Houston State* (Southland) – SHSU dropped another ho-hum 60+ points this week. Just #1 being #1.
2 Jacksonville State* (OVC) – The Gamecocks still look like contenders after crushing Eastern Illinois
3 North Dakota State – The Bison put a a long time rival to bed in UNI. No matter the seeding, NDSU is the favorite come playoff time.
4 Eastern Washington* (Big Sky) – Montana posed no problems for EWU. Another great season for Eastern.
5 James Madison* (CAA) – Beating the brakes off of URI should be par for the course, but the way the Dukes did it was significant. This team is for real, and are now projected to win the CAA.
6 The Citadel* (SoCon) – Citadel remained unbeaten with a 45-10 blowout over ETSU. The Bulldogs must stay focused with #20 Samford on deck this week.
7 Richmond – Rocco’s squad is a bye week victim of sorts. They have the chance to prove themselves this week against JMU.
8 Charleston Southern* (Big South) – A win against Bucknell doesn’t exactly catch the eye, but the Bucs keep winning, and South Dakota State crapped the bed against Illinois State. Congrats Chadwell. With Liberty’s win over Gardner-Webb, November 12 is now the de facto Big South Championship game.
* Projected Conference Auto-bid
Conference Projections
Big Sky
Auto-Bid:
Eastern Washington (5-0, 7-1)^
At-Large:
North Dakota (6-0, 7-2)^
Cal Poly (4-1, 6-2)
Montana (2-3, 5-3)
Bubble:
Weber State (4-1, 5-3)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Big South
Auto-Bid:
Charleston Southern (2-0, 5-2)
Bubble:
Liberty (3-0, 5-3)
Colonial
Auto-Bid:
James Madison (5-0, 7-1)^
At-Large:
Richmond (4-1, 7-1)^
Villanova (4-1, 6-2)
New Hampshire (5-1, 6-3)
Maine (4-1, 5-3)
Bubble:
Stony Brook (4-1, 5-3)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Missouri Valley
Auto-Bid:
South Dakota State (4-1, 5-3)
At-Large:
North Dakota State (4-1, 7-1)^
Youngstown State (4-1, 6-2)
Western Illinois (3-2, 6-2)
Bubble:
South Dakota (3-2, 4-4)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Northeast
Auto-Bid:
St. Francis (PA) (4-0, 6-3)
Ohio Valley
Auto-Bid:
Jacksonville State (4-0, 7-1)
Bubble:
Eastern Illinois (3-3, 5-4)
Tennessee State (2-2, 5-3)
UT Martin (4-1, 5-4)
Patriot
Auto-Bid:
Lehigh (4-0, 7-2)^
Bubble:
Fordham (2-1, 5-3)
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Pioneer
Auto-Bid:
San Diego (6-0, 7-1)
Bubble:
Dayton (5-1, 7-2)
Southern
Auto-Bid:
Citadel (6-0, 8-0)^
At-Large:
Chattanooga (6-1, 8-1)^
Samford (4-2, 6-2)
Wofford (3-2, 5-3)
Southland
Auto-Bid:
Sam Houston State (6-0, 8-0)^
At-Large:
Central Arkansas (6-0, 7-1)^
^ Denotes 7 Division 1 win mark achieved
Where is Liberty?
The Flames kept winning, surviving an OT scare against Gardner-Webb. While a close win against the Bulldogs probably didn’t score LU any style points, getting to 5-3 with 4 wins in a row will probably garner some attention. I still have Liberty on the outside looking in, but it’s close. A few other respected FCS bracketologists have Liberty in right now, but until the day comes when LU gets an at-large bid over teams like Maine, I have a hard time believing it will happen. The great news is that the Flames control their own destiny now. Win November 12, and Coach Gill’s squad will be back in the playoffs. Win everything but the CSU game, and they may have an argument. We will see. Best not to leave it in the hands of the committee.
Teams Eliminated from 7 Win Contention
Portland State
Idaho State
UC Davis
Sacramento State
Montana State
Gardner-Webb
Presbyterian
Monmouth
Delaware
William & Mary
Elon
Towson
Rhode Island
Northern Iowa
Indiana State
Illinois State
Southern Illinois
Bryant
Robert Morris
Central Connecticut State
Murray State
SE Missouri State
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Kentucky
Austin Peay
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Georgetown
Butler
Valparaiso
Campbell
Morehead State
Davidson
Furman
VMI
ETSU
Western Carolina
Lamar
Houston Baptist
Incarnate Word
Abilene Christian
Northwestern State
