As has become a ritual this time of the year, our contributors have gotten together to discuss the most burning questions entering the 2018 season.
1. With the transition to FBS, what should fans’ expectations be? What defines success in a season like this?
Duke Cuneo: We all have dreams. And even though the reality of three consecutive 6-5 FCS seasons should be in the back of fans’ minds, most of us still have this idea that Liberty has been a high level FCS program since the Rocco years. The talent has been there in the skills positions, but it hasn’t translated into results. So while we would all love to see another winning record, I don’t think that is realistic in our transition. You could make the argument that no team has transitioned with more resources than Liberty. You could also make the argument that no team has transitioned in worse shape on the field. I think fans have to be patient. Realize that 10 FBS games against some VERY good teams is going to be really tough for a new team at this level. Expect some good moments, and cheer them. Expect a lot of bad ones and embrace them as part of getting where we all want to go. Success this season is winning the two FCS games, and staying competitive in at least 7-8 others. The team and fan base can not afford to get demoralized over our first season in FBS.
Chad Hasson: I’d like to see a season that includes competing in most every game. No G5 blowouts and no FCS losses. Success would be constant improvement on the field. I will add that a top 85 rated recruiting class being signed in the spring would indicate a successful season.
Jon Manson: With the exception of the late season game at Auburn, all the games should be competitive. Ian McCaw and Mickey Guridy did a tremendous job putting this schedule together on such short notice. The Flames have had a winning season for the past 11 years, and with such a young fanbase, many fans have only known winning seasons. This year, that streak is likely to come to an end. The previous 10 teams who made the transition from FCS to FBS, had an average record of 4.2-7.9 (basically 4-8).
Evan Nester: My recommendation for Liberty fans would be to prepare for the worst, but expect the best. I am usually an optimist when it comes to Liberty football, but I understand the realities that come with this season. The Flames will have to rise to different levels of talent each week, something the Big South did not demand. Can they do it? Completely. We have seen Liberty compete with FBS teams over the years, but we have not seen it happen every Saturday. I would say we must be ready for long nights similar to that of Jacksonville State last season, but anticipate the thrills of beating teams like UVA and Auburn. And through all this, a successful season would be one worth build off of. To see them fight through every minute of every game, build confidence playing at the highest level of football, and attract talented recruits would be a great sign going forward.
2. Which home game are you most looking forward to this season? Why?
DC: I imagine this will be the consensus in the room, but the ODU game for sure. Not only is it our first FBS home game, it’s against an in-state program that should probably develop into our main rival if we are able to schedule them regularly in the future. They’ve had success pretty quickly in their transition, and they have a big fan base. It would be awesome to avenge that tough loss a few years ago in our first game at the new Williams Stadium.
CH: Troy will be the highest rated team to play at Williams Stadium. They could bea top 60 team in the country when we play them. That being said, I am most looking forward to ODU because of its historic place in program history. I am also looking forward to watching a game in the renovated and expanded stadium.
JM: Old Dominion is the obvious answer. First FBS game. First home game against FBS opponent. Season opener. In-state opponent. Newly renovated Williams Stadium. I’m really looking forward to the Troy game, as well though. That’s a solid G5 team with a decent tradition, that’s coming off consecutive 10+ win seasons including an 11-2 mark and Sun Belt Championship last year.
EN: It has to be Old Dominion. It will be the largest crowd to ever grace Williams Stadium. The place will be electric, students will be savage, and Liberty has the chance to kickoff their FBS tenure with a notable win against a CUSA foe. Plus, I would love for Liberty to get revenge for the game they let away from them in 2013. That was one of the hardest losses I have experienced as a Liberty fan.
3. With the stadium expansion and FBS move, almost everyone is expecting increased interest and attendance. What sort of attendance numbers do you expect over the season? How much staying power will that interest have later into the season?
DC: I’m not as optimistic as most on this, but I hope I’m dead wrong. It is increasingly difficult to put butts in the seats across the sporting spectrum, and college football is no exception. There are just so many options out there I guess. I expect an early attendance bump from the new stadium expansion and hype from FBS. The ODU crowd will also help with that. However, as the name recognition falls later in the season, and the losses likely mount, I actually expect a drop off. Again, I hope everyone proves me wrong and makes the Bill an awesome place to be.
CH: I expect a strong early start and somewhat of a slow finish. The ODU game will break attendance records probably somewhere around 23,500 while the New Mexico State game at the end of the season, on Thanksgiving break and coming off a month long road trip, will likely come in at 16,500.
JM: The ODU game should set a school record and be near capacity. The next 4 games should all be in the 18-20,000 range. The real question will be the season finale against New Mexico State. That comes after an open date and 3 straight road games. The team could have a poor record by then and it’s Thanksgiving weekend. Doesn’t set up for a great attendance day.
EN: The past two years, the Flames averaged around 16K in home attendance going up against the likes of Presbyterian, Kennesaw State, and Gardner-Webb. Now that Williams Stadium will welcome more notable teams like Troy, North Texas, and ODU, along with the improved facilities and game day experience, I would be disappointed with anything less than 20K in average attendance. No doubt the numbers will start out strong as Old Dominion will break the total attendance record set against Montana, but depending on Liberty’s level of play, that strong showing could fade out by the end of the season. Regardless of the upgrades, football is much more enjoyable to watch when the game is close or your team is winning. Should the Flames struggle, I imagine numbers will drop. I do expect that McCaw will bring a level of experience with him to entice Liberty fans out of their homes and dorms throughout the season, and if he does manage that, it’s convincing them to stay throughout the entire game that is a battle. Let’s all agree that “Four Quarters of Fury” isn’t going to get the job done.
4. The Flames will likely be underdogs in almost all of their FBS games this season. Which game do you think LU is most likely to pull an upset?
DC: Hard to tell this early, because we just don’t know who this team is yet. But based on recent performance trends, the option teams will give us fits, I think we rule them out. I’m going with UMass or NMSU right now though. We play NMSU twice, is that cheating?
CH: I look for LU to win against ODU because of the magnitude and unbelievable vibes in the new stadium. I believe wins at UMass and New MExico State are also possible. They haven’t been very good.
JM: Virginia is the first game that comes to mind that seems realistic and would feel like a true upset. Although, as mentioned, any win over an FBS team this year is a likely upset. I think the Flames have a great chance against ODU, and North Texas is another good opportunity for a win.
EN: Old Dominion seems to make sense. I imagine they will be favored by a touchdown, but Liberty should be well prepared for this game considering the opportunity it presents. It will also be “opening night” for the newly renovated Williams Stadium, so the crowd will also be aggressive and present a problem for the Monarchs.
5. Now that Turner Gill has made it to this point, is he the right guy to lead us through the transition?
DC: Well, I don’t think my feelings on the coaching situation are a big secret. However, Gill should get a pass on the record this season. I’m more interested in how the team gets to that record. If they win the FCS games and look competitive in most others, I think he earns another year (sigh). That being said, if the team goes 2-10 I think he has to be gone. I think we do a little better than that though.
CH: He is the right guy right now because he is the guy right now. As a fan, it’s easy to speculate about coaches being on the hot seat, however I have a level of trust in the AD currently that I will support whoever is the HC on Saturdays. I realize this sounds like blind optimism but Ian has shown himself very capable of making the correct decisions to get this program beyond where most fans could expect.
JM: Not sure it matters if he’s the right guy or not, he’s the guy. At this point, I think he will be the head coach for at least another season or two to steady the program through the transition.
EN: It is no secret that Turner Gill is experienced at the FBS level. He spent time with the Nebraska coaching staff and served as the head coach at Buffalo and Kansas. Regardless of his record, those six years could be beneficial for the Flames as they adapt to the new expectations of the FBS ranks. So will he be useful? For sure. Is he the right guy? I sure hope so.
6. Are we still talking about Gill as head coach next August?
DC: Sort of continued from the last question I guess (who wrote these anyway?). I do think Gill is back for 2019. Not because he should necessarily, but because that just seems to be the way the wind is blowing. He’s legitimately had zero excuse for the pathetic records against a Big South without Coastal or Stony Brook. This year he has a pretty solid built in excuse for a bad record.
CH: Yes, I believe we win 5-6 games and pull a top 85 recruiting class and Gill continues to guide us through the transition.
JM: Yes. The only thing that keeps him from being the head coach in 2019 is a scandal (not likely) or absolute embarrassing 2018 season.
EN: I struggled with this one as I could see it going both ways. On one hand, it could be easy to justify a down season. The Flames will experience a number of changes including a constant flow of teams much more talented than what they saw in the Big South. Most are expecting a losing record due to the growing pains of transition. But on the other, if the season turns out to be abysmal…like “0-3 win season” abysmal and Williams Stadium begins to hang around or drift below the FBS required 15K in average attendance, I could see Jerry Jr. and Ian McCaw deciding it is time to bring in someone new who will take us forward. Specifically a big name that would foster excitement and put butts in seats. If I had to guess, Gill will coach this year and next before he is in danger of being let go.
7. What is your overall record projection for the season, and give us a bold prediction for the first year with an FBS schedule?
DC: I’m going with 4-8. Bold prediction this year? Only one of our 3 FBS wins comes at home.
CH: LU wins 6 games, and my bold prediction is DJ Stubbs leads the team in all purpose yards, including top 3 in receiving yards.
JM: 4-8. The ODU game is critical for the success of the season. Win that game and we have a chance to compete for 6 wins late into the year. Lose and it will be an uphill battle to win 4. Bold prediction: Flames are leading the Cavaliers in the 4th quarter.
EN: The floor for the Flames is 3-9. A couple of FCS teams, along with New Mexico State twice and UMass should help in getting them there. But I believe they will manage a couple more wins than that. I say Liberty will likely go 5-7 in their first year as a FBS team. As bold predictions go, I say QB Buckshot Calvert and WR Antonio Gandy-Golden will become a premier QB-WR duo in the FBS ranks. Both will rank top 5 in their perspective positions at the end of the season.
