The Liberty Flames (8-3, 5-3 CUSA) will play the Buffalo Bulls (8-4, 6-2 MAC) in the Bahamas Bowl. The Flames and Bulls are scheduled to meet at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas on Saturday, Jan. 4 at 11 a.m. ET. The game will air on ESPN2.
Liberty is 3-0 all-time against Buffalo. The two teams meet last September in Buffalo with Liberty picking up the win, 55-27. In the only other meeting between the two programs at the FBS level, Liberty defeated Buffalo, 35-17, in Lynchburg on Sept. 14, 2019.
“If you look at the team last year to this year, they’re not the same,” said Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell of this year’s Buffalo team. “They are way better. Our guys know that. Our guys know that we’ve got to play well to get a win. They know we’ve lost some people, key people. So, our guys, we are really rallying around each other.”
The Bulls are making their second bowl trip in three years, as they defeated Georgia Southern, 23-21, in the 2022 Camellia Bow. They’ve also made bowl trips in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022 in recent seasons.
Under first year head coach Pete Lembo, Buffalo finished the 2024 season with an 8-4 record and 6-2 mark, finishing 3rd in the MAC. Their losses came to Missouri, UConn, Western Michigan, and Ohio. The only common opponent with Liberty is UMass. Buffalo defeated the Minutemen, 34-3, on Sept. 14 while the Flames defeated UMass, 35-34, in overtime on Nov. 16. Buffalo was playing their best football at the end of the season, winning its last four games of the regular season entering the bowl game.
Lembo has previous stints as assistant head coach and special teams coordinator at Maryland, Rice, Memphis, and, most recently, South Carolina. He has previous head coaching experience at Lehigh from 2001-2005, Elon from 2006-2010, and Ball State from 2011-2015. Lembo has faced Liberty on three previous occasions as head coach and has a 2-1 mark against the Flames. His 2004 Lehigh team defeated the Flames, 34-16, in Lynchburg. Then, in 2007 while at Elon, Lembo knocked off the Flames, 42-14. The only time Liberty has gotten the best of Lembo was in 2008 when the Flames defeated Elon, 26-3, in Lynchburg.
Lembo is very familiar with Chadwell and his offensive system. During previous offseasons, Lembo and his staff have studied the Chadwell offensive system and adopted some of the things Chadwell has done at Liberty and his previous stops.
“We’ve actually studied some of Liberty’s film in the past,” Lembo said. “Some of the things we do offensively are actually somewhat similar to Liberty. Liberty is a team that’s not afraid to run the quarterback and that’s obviously been something that we’ve done as well this year.”
A transfer from Southeast Missouri State, CJ Ogbonna played in eight games in 2023 but took over as the starter at quarterback this season. He completed 181 of 317 passes (57.1%) for 2,244 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 12 games. He also has 108 rushes for 311 yards and eight touchdowns.
Al-Jay Henderson rushed for nearly 1,000 yards on the season. The junior running back ranked third in the MAC with 959 yards on the ground. He has added 17 receptions for 202 yards and nine total touchdowns. Buffalo’s second best running back this season is Jacqez Barksdale who had 78 carries for 286 yards and two scores.
Victor Snow has led the Bulls in receiving this season. He has 51 receptions for 610 yards and six touchdowns on the season. He caught a touchdown pass in five of the last six games.
LB Shaun Dolac was named the MAC’s Defensive Player of the Year. He’s the second UB player to ever earn that honor, joining Khalil Mack who won the award in 2013. Dolac finished the regular season with a nation leading 159 tackles to go along with 16.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and five interceptions.
Fellow linebacker Red Murdock joined Dolac on the MAC’s first-team all-conference. He was second in the nation in tackles with 143 and added 14 tackles for loss, two sacks, and five forced fumbles.
Defensive end Kobe Stewart leads the MAC with 9.5 sacks, the most by a UB player since Khalil Mack had 10.5 in 2013. He has added 40 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.
As most bowl games are now, the game features teams entering the contest with different mindsets. Liberty is coming off a disappointing season as the Flames entered the year with dreams of reaching the College Football Playoff and winning a second straight CUSA title. That obviously didn’t happen as the Flames finished with three losses in conference play to finish 4th in the conference standings at the end of the regular season. Since then, Liberty has seen several players enter the transfer portal and opt out of this bowl game.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has seen a resurgence and a quick one-year turnaround under Coach Lembo. They were picked to finish 10th in the preseason MAC football poll, but surprised everyone by winning eight games and get to a bowl. The Bulls have had very few portal entries and opt outs as they look to have nearly a full roster from its regular season.
“They are extremely physical on both sides of the ball,” Chadwell said of Buffalo. “They do a lot of stuff that challenges you from a schematic standpoint. But the thing that really pops out on video if you watch them, they play really hard, and they will lay into you. You’re going to know you’re in a game. They’re a physical group. He’s got them playing. They’ve got Defensive Player of the Year, linebacker Dolac. He’s done a phenomenal job. They really improved, just the consistency they played with.”
It is hard to predict what we will see out of the Liberty team. The Flames are down seven starters and several other reserves due to opt outs and the transfer portal. The most notable names are at quarterback where Ryan Burger will fill in for Kaidon Salter and at running back as Billy Lucas will get the bulk of the work with Quinton Cooley out of the game. Liberty is also thin at offensive line with three of their regular rotation players in the portal and at linebacker with Jerome Jolly opting out and Aidan Vaughan missing the game due to injury.
PREDICTION
Buffalo 28, Liberty 24
Line: Buffalo -3
Picks results this year:
Straight-up: 8-3
ATS: 7-4
