In seasons past, we here at A Sea of Red have spent countless hours producing FCS Playoff projections. Thankfully those days are over. Now we have the privilege of Bowl projections!
With Liberty in their final season of transition to FBS, the Flames are not technically earmarked for bowl eligibility. However, should Liberty get to 6 eligible victories (5 FBS wins + 1 FCS win would do the trick) they would go to a bowl game if there are not enough FBS teams eligible to fill all of the bowl slots.
There are a ton of moving pieces here, but the gist of the situation is this: Liberty currently sits at 4-3 with 3 FBS wins plus their 1 eligible FCS win against Idaho State. This means the Flames will need to win 2 of their next 4 games, with the season finale against FCS Norfolk State being irrelevant to LU’s bowl hopes. Should the Flames get over that hurdle, they will need 52 FBS teams to finish with less than 6 eligible victories.
That’s the Reader’s Digest version (does Reader’s Digest still exist?) of things. We can get into the weeds on the technicalities and contingencies 1-582824821 of NCAA bylaws, but that seems ridiculous right now. Let’s just look at the the teams who are in, the teams who are out, and everyone in between.
Number of Teams Eliminated: 7
Number of Teams Bowl Eligible: 28
Liberty’s Magic Number: 45 Teams need to be eliminated
Number of 5 Win Teams (1 Win from Eligibility): 24
Number of 6 Loss Teams (1 Loss from Elimination): 12
Number of 5 Loss Teams (2 Losses from Elimination): 15
Number of 4 Loss Teams (3 Losses from Elimination): 21
Number of 3-3 & 4-3 Teams (Toss Ups): 21 + Liberty (4-3)
Bowl Eligible Teams |
Eliminated Teams |
| Central Florida | Rutgers |
| South Florida | UTEP |
| Cincinnati | Rice |
| Houston | Bowling Green |
| Clemson | Kent State |
| Texas | Central Michigan |
| Oklahoma | San Jose State |
| Ohio State | |
| Michigan | |
| Iowa | |
| UAB | |
| North Texas | |
| Notre Dame | |
| Buffalo | |
| Western Michigan | |
| Utah State | |
| Fresno State | |
| San Diego State | |
| Hawaii | |
| Washington | |
| Washington State | |
| Kentucky | |
| Florida | |
| Georgia | |
| Alabama | |
| LSU | |
| Troy | |
| Georgia Southern |
6 Loss Teams
| Team | Next Opponent | ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
| UConn (1-6) | UMass (2-6) | 34.6% |
| Tulsa (1-6) | Tulane (2-5) | 50.1% |
| Nebraska (1-6) | Bethune-Cookman (4-4 FCS) | 98.3% |
| Old Dominion (2-6) | Middle Tennessee State (4-3) | 31.6% |
| Western Kentucky (1-6) | Florida International (5-2) | 30.2% |
| New Mexico State (2-6) | @ Texas State (1-6) | 46.4% |
| UMass (2-6) | @ UConn (1-6) | 65.4% |
| Wyoming (2-6) | @ Colorado State (3-5) | 55.7% |
| Oregon State (1-6) | @ Colorado (5-2) | 6.2% |
| Arkansas (2-6) | Vanderbilt (3-5) | 48.4% |
| South Alabama (2-6) | BYE | N/A |
| Texas State (1-6) | New Mexico State (2-6) | 53.6% |
5 Loss Teams
| Team | Next Opponent | ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
| East Carolina (2-5) | BYE | N/A |
| Tulane (2-5) | @ Tulsa (1-6) | 49.9% |
| Navy (2-5) | #3 Notre Dame (7-0) | 2.3% |
| Louisville (2-5) | Wake Forest (3-4) | 53.9% |
| North Carolina (1-5) | @ Virginia (5-2) | 20.4% |
| Kansas (2-5) | TCU (3-4) | 22.4% |
| Texas-San Antonio (3-5) | BYE | N/A |
| Miami-Ohio (3-5) | @ Buffalo (7-1) 10/30 | 33.9% |
| Ball State (3-5) | @ Ohio (4-3) | 22.0% |
| Colorado State (3-5) | Wyoming (2-6) | 44.3% |
| UNLV (2-5) | @ San Jose State (0-7) | 58.1% |
| UCLA (2-5) | #23 Utah (5-2) | 24.4% |
| Arizona (3-5) | #19 Oregon (5-2) | 35.2% |
| Vanderbilt (3-5) | @ Arkansas (2-6) | 51.6% |
| Georgia State (2-5) | Coastal Carolina (4-3) | 49.5% |
4 Loss Teams
| Team | Next Opponent | ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
| SMU (3-4) | Cincinnati (6-1) | 23.9% |
| Memphis (4-4) | BYE | N/A |
| Wake Forest (3-4) | @ Louisville (2-5) | 46.1% |
| Pittsburgh (3-4) | BYE | N/A |
| Georgia Tech (3-4) | BYE | N/A |
| Kansas State (3-4) | @ #8 Oklahoma (6-1) | 6.0% |
| TCU (3-4) | @ Kansas (2-5) | 77.6% |
| Indiana (4-4) | @ Minnesota (3-4) | 42.4% |
| Illinois (3-4) | @ Maryland (4-3) | 12.8% |
| Minnesota (3-4) | Indiana (4-4) | 57.6% |
| UNC-Charlotte (3-4) | Southern Miss (3-3) | 39.9% |
| Florida Atlantic (3-4) | Louisiana Tech (5-2) | 49.0% |
| Eastern Michigan (4-4) | Army (5-2) | 43.4% |
| Toledo (3-4) | @ Western Michigan (6-2) | 37.2% |
| New Mexico (3-4) | @ Utah State (6-1) | 7.8% |
| Air Force (3-4) | Boise State (5-2) | 23.0% |
| Nevada (4-4) | San Diego State (6-1) | 46.4% |
| Arizona State (3-4) | @ USC (4-3) | 36.8% |
| Tennessee (3-4) | @ South Carolina (3-3) | 19.8% |
| Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) | BYE | N/A |
| Louisiana-Lafayette (3-4) | Arkansas State (4-3) | 39.7% |
3-3/4-3 Toss Ups
| Team | Next Opponent | ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
| Florida State (4-3) | #2 Clemson (7-0) | 9.2% |
| Baylor (4-3) | @ #13 West Virginia (5-1) | 16.9% |
| Iowa State (3-3) | Texas Tech (5-2) | 50.5% |
| Oklahoma State (4-3) | #6 Texas (6-1) | 47.8% |
| Michigan State (4-3) | Purdue (4-3) | 57.1% |
| Maryland (4-3) | Illinois (3-4) | 87.2% |
| Northwestern (4-3) | #20 Wisconsin (5-2) | 33.0% |
| Purdue (4-3) | @ Michigan State (4-3) | 42.9% |
| Middle Tennessee State (4-3) | @ ODU (2-6) | 68.4% |
| Southern Miss (3-3) | @ Charlotte (3-4) | 60.1% |
| BYU (4-3) | Northern Illinois (4-3) | 69.1% |
| Liberty (4-3) | BYE | N/A |
| Ohio (4-3) | Ball State (3-5) | 78.0% |
| Akron (3-3) | Central Michigan (1-7) | 65.6% |
| Northern Illinois (4-3) | @ BYU (4-3) | 30.9% |
| California (4-3) | #15 Washington (6-2) | 16.3% |
| USC (4-3) | Arizona State (3-4) | 63.2% |
| South Carolina (3-3) | Tennessee (3-4) | 80.2% |
| Missouri (4-3) | #12 Kentucky (6-1) | 64.5% |
| Mississippi State (4-3) | #16 Texas A&M (5-2) | 56.1% |
| Coastal Carolina (4-3) | @ Georgia State (2-5) | 50.5% |
| Arkansas State (4-3) | @ Louisiana-Lafayette (3-4) | 60.3% |
5 Win Teams
| Team | Next Opponent | ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
| Temple (5-3) | BYE | N/A |
| #22 NC State (5-1) | @ Syracuse (5-2) | 49.0% |
| Boston College (5-2) | Miami (5-2) | 42.7% |
| Syracuse (5-2) | #22 NC State (5-1) | 51.0% |
| Miami (5-2) | @Boston College (5-2) | 57.3% |
| Virginia (5-2) | North Carolina (1-5) | 79.6% |
| Duke (5-2) | @ Pittsburgh (3-4) | 69.2% |
| #13 West Virginia (5-1) | Baylor (4-3) | 83.1% |
| Texas Tech (5-2) | @ Iowa State (3-3) | 49.5% |
| #17 Penn State (5-2) | #18 Iowa (6-1) | 73.6% |
| #20 Wisconsin (5-2) | @ Northwestern (4-3) | 67.0% |
| Florida International (5-2) | @ Western Kentucky (1-6) | 69.8% |
| Marshall (5-2) | @ Southern Miss (3-3) | 66.3% |
| Louisiana Tech (5-2) | @ Florida Atlantic (3-4) | 51.0% |
| Army (5-2) | @ Eastern Michigan (4-4) | 56.6% |
| Boise State (5-2) | @ Air Force (3-4) | 77.0% |
| #24 Stanford (5-2) | #14 Washington State (6-1) | 64.0% |
| #19 Oregon (5-2) | @Arizona (3-5) | 64.8% |
| #23 Utah (5-2) | @ UCLA (2-5) | 75.6% |
| Colorado (5-2) | Oregon State (1-6) | 93.8% |
| #16 Texas A&M (5-2) | @ Mississippi State (4-3) | 43.9% |
| Auburn (5-3) | BYE | N/A |
| Ole Miss (5-3) | BYE | N/A |
| #25 Appalachian State (5-1) | @ Georgia Southern (6-1) | 74.0% |
So that’s how things look this week. According to ESPN FPI, 6 teams have a greater than 50% chance of being eliminated this week, and 10 teams have a greater than 50% chance to drop to 6 losses. As we close in on things, we will start breaking down these teams chances of being eliminated or becoming bowl eligible by season’s end. The bottom line for Liberty remains the same, just win. The Flames cannot control what happens to this long list of schools, but they can control what happens on the field when they line up each week. Even if things do not work out for LU to go to a bowl game this season, a 7-5 or 6-6 record in their first season of FBS competition would be a tremendous accomplishment.
