In seasons past, we here at A Sea of Red have spent countless hours producing FCS Playoff projections. Thankfully those days are over. Now we have the privilege of Bowl projections!
With Liberty in their final season of transition to FBS, the Flames are not technically earmarked for bowl eligibility. However, should Liberty get to 6 eligible victories (5 FBS wins + 1 FCS win would do the trick) they would go to a bowl game if there are not enough FBS teams eligible to fill all of the bowl slots.
There are a ton of moving pieces here, but the gist of the situation is this: Liberty currently sits at 4-3 with 3 FBS wins plus their 1 eligible FCS win against Idaho State. This means the Flames will need to win 2 of their next 4 games, with the season finale against FCS Norfolk State being irrelevant to LU’s bowl hopes. Should the Flames get over that hurdle, they will need 52 FBS teams to finish with less than 6 eligible victories.
That’s the Reader’s Digest version (does Reader’s Digest still exist?) of things. We can get into the weeds on the technicalities and contingencies 1-582824821 of NCAA bylaws, but that seems ridiculous right now. Let’s just look at the the teams who are in, the teams who are out, and everyone in between.
Number of Teams Eliminated: 13 (+6 from last week)
Number of Teams Bowl Eligible: 38 (+10)
Liberty’s Magic Number: 39 Teams need to be eliminated
Number of 5 Win Teams (1 Win from Eligibility): 25 (+1)
Number of 6 Loss Teams (1 Loss from Elimination): 14 (+2)
Number of 5 Loss Teams (2 Losses from Elimination): 17 (+2)
Number of 4 Loss Teams (3 Losses from Elimination): 20 (-1)
Number of 4-3 Teams: 5 (including Liberty)
Number of FPI Projected Ineligible Teams: 55 (Including Liberty)
Bowl Eligible Teams |
Eliminated Teams |
| Central Florida | Connecticut |
| South Florida | Tulsa |
| Cincinnati | Old Dominion |
| Houston | Western Kentucky |
| Clemson | New Mexico State |
| Boston College | Arkansas |
| Syracuse | Rutgers |
| Virginia | Texas El-Paso |
| West Virginia | Rice |
| Texas | Bowling Green |
| Oklahoma | Kent State |
| Oklahoma State | Central Michigan |
| Penn State | San Jose State |
| Michigan | |
| Iowa | |
| Florida International | |
| Louisiana Tech | |
| Alabama-Birmingham | |
| North Texas | |
| Army | |
| Notre Dame | |
| Buffalo | |
| Western Michigan | |
| Boise State | |
| Utah State | |
| Fresno State | |
| San Diego State | |
| Hawaii | |
| Washington | |
| Utah | |
| Washington State | |
| Kentucky | |
| Florida | |
| Georgia | |
| Alabama | |
| Louisiana State | |
| Troy | |
| Georgia Southern |
6 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Navy (2-6) | @ Cincinnati | 11.6% | 3-10 |
| Louisville (2-6) | @ #2 Clemson | 0.8% | 2-10 |
| North Carolina (1-6) | Georgia Tech | 24.1% | 2-9 |
| Nebraska (2-6) | @ #8 Ohio State | 4.5% | 3-9 |
| UMass (3-6) | Liberty | 56.3% | 4-8 |
| Ball State (3-6) | @ Toledo | 12.5% | 3-9 |
| Colorado State (3-6) | BYE | N/A | 3-9 |
| Wyoming (3-6) | San Jose State | 83.3% | 5-7 |
| UNLV (2-6) | #20 Fresno State | 5.1% | 2-10 |
| Oregon State (2-6) | USC | 13.2% | 2-10 |
| UCLA (2-6) | @ Oregon | 23.0% | 2-10 |
| Georgia State (2-6) | Texas State | 75.2% | 3-9 |
| South Alabama (2-6) | @ Arkansas State | 13.4% | 2-10 |
| Texas State (2-6) | @ Georgia State | 24.8% | 2-10 |
5 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| East Carolina (2-5) | Memphis | 11.4% | 3-9 |
| Southern Methodist (3-5) | #17 Houston | 19.2% | 4-8 |
| Tulane (3-5) | South Florida | 32.9% | 5-7 |
| Kansas (3-5) | Iowa State | 20.5% | 3-9 |
| Kansas State (3-5) | @ Texas Christian | 21.4% | 4-8 |
| Texas Christian (3-5) | Kansas State | 78.6% | 6-6 |
| Indiana (4-5) | BYE | N/A | 5-7 |
| Illinois (3-5) | Minnesota | 29.6% | 3-9 |
| Florida Atlantic (3-5) | @ Florida International | 33.1% | 5-7 |
| Texas San Antonio (3-5) | @ Alabama Birmingham | 8.9% | 3-9 |
| Miami-Ohio (3-5) | @ Buffalo | 32.5% | 5-7 |
| Eastern Michigan (4-5) | Central Michigan | 82.8% | 7-5 |
| New Mexico (3-5) | San Diego State | 30.9% | 3-9 |
| Air Force (3-5) | @ Army | 20.0% | 6-6 |
| Arizona (4-5) | Colorado | 62.6% | 5-7 |
| Vanderbilt (4-5) | BYE | N/A | 5-7 |
| Tennessee (3-5) | Charlotte | 93.6% | 4-8 |
4 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Memphis (4-4) | @ East Carolina | 88.6% | 8-4 |
| Florida State (4-4) | @ NC State | 24.5% | 4-8 |
| Wake Forest (4-4) | #22 Syracuse | 35.0% | 5-7 |
| Pittsburgh (4-4) | @ #23 Virginia | 28.1% | 4-8 |
| Georgia Tech (4-4) | @ North Carolina | 75.9% | 6-6 |
| Baylor (4-4) | Oklahoma State | 34.1% | 4-8 |
| Purdue (4-4) | #19 Iowa | 47.4% | 7-5 |
| Minnesota (4-4) | @ Illinois | 70.4% | 5-7 |
| Charlotte (4-4) | @ Tennessee | 6.4% | 4-8 |
| Southern Miss (3-4) | Marshall | 32.4% | 4-7 |
| BYU (4-4) | @ Boise State | 16.1% | 6-6 |
| Toledo (4-4) | Ball State | 87.5% | 7-5 |
| USC (4-4) | @ Oregon State | 86.8% | 7-5 |
| Arizona State (4-4) | #16 Utah | 31.0% | 6-6 |
| Missouri (4-4) | @ #13 Florida | 30.0% | 7-5 |
| Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) | Georgia Southern | 22.4% | 5-7 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4) | @ Troy | 19.3% | 7-5 |
| Arkansas State (4-4) | South Alabama | 86.6% | 8-4 |
| Nevada (5-4) | BYE | N/A | 8-4 |
| Hawaii (6-4)* | #18 Utah State | 10.8% | 7-6 |
4 Win-3 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Virginia Tech (4-3) | #24 Boston College | 50.2% | 7-4 |
| Iowa State (4-3) | @ Kansas | 79.5% | 8-4 |
| Liberty (4-3) | @ UMass | 43.7% | 6-6 (5 eligible wins) |
| Akron (4-3) | Northern Illinois | 35.6% | 5-6 |
| South Carolina (4-3) | @ Ole Miss | 49.7% | 5-6 |
5 Win Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Temple (5-3) | @ #9 Central Florida | 15.9% | 7-5 |
| NC State (5-2) | Florida State | 75.5% | 10-2 |
| Miami (5-3) | Duke | 74.6% | 9-3 |
| Duke (5-3) | @ Miami | 25.4% | 7-5 |
| Texas Tech (5-3) | #7 Oklahoma | 28.4% | 8-4 |
| Oklahoma State (5-3) | @ Baylor | 65.9% | 7-5 |
| Michigan State (5-3) | @ Maryland | 61.5% | 8-4 |
| Maryland (5-3) | Michigan State | 38.5% | 5-7 |
| Northwestern (5-3) | #3 Notre Dame | 27.8% | 7-5 |
| Wisconsin (5-3) | Rutgers | 96.7% | 7-5 |
| Middle Tennessee (5-3) | Western Kentucky | 86.8% | 7-5 |
| Marshall (5-2) | @ Southern Miss | 67.6% | 8-3 |
| Ohio (5-3) | @ Western Michigan | 46.4% | 7-5 |
| Northern Illinois (5-3) | @ Akron | 64.4% | 8-4 |
| Nevada (5-4) | Colorado State | 81.1% | 8-4 |
| Stanford (5-3) | @ Washington | 26.6% | 8-4 |
| Oregon (5-3) | UCLA | 77.0% | 8-4 |
| California (5-3) | @ #10 Washington St | 18.5% | 6-6 |
| Colorado (5-3) | @ Arizona | 37.4% | 5-7 |
| #25 Texas A&M (5-3) | @ Auburn | 38.2% | 7-5 |
| #21 Mississippi State (5-3) | Louisiana Tech | 92.7% | 8-4 |
| Auburn (5-3) | #25 Texas A&M | 61.8% | 7-5 |
| Ole Miss (5-3) | South Carolina | 50.3% | 7-5 (Bowl Ineligible) |
| Appalachian State (5-2) | @ Coastal Carolina | 85.9% | 9-2 |
| Coastal Carolina (5-3) | Appalachian State | 14.1% | 6-6 |
Alright. Several notable changes from last week. First of all, I added a metric (because who doesn’t want to do more work?). I decided to go ahead and use the ESPN FPI to project each team’s final record, meaning we can track week to week the projected number of teams that will and will not be bowl eligible at season’s end. Right now, the projected number of eliminated teams sits at 55, but includes Liberty at 6-6 with only 5 eligible wins. Should Liberty pull off a 7-5 or 6-6 record with 6 eligible wins, that number of 54 eliminated teams would put them in a bowl game. The Flames have an agreement in place with the Cure Bowl, however which game Liberty would be in would not be determined until the Sun Belt and American Athletic Conference results shake out. Keep reading though, A LOT is likely to change. Tons of projected 5-7, 6-6, and 7-5 teams out there.
