In seasons past, we here at A Sea of Red have spent countless hours producing FCS Playoff projections. Thankfully those days are over. Now we have the privilege of Bowl projections!
With Liberty in their final season of transition to FBS, the Flames are not technically earmarked for bowl eligibility. However, should Liberty get to 6 eligible victories (5 FBS wins + 1 FCS win would do the trick) they would go to a bowl game if there are not enough FBS teams eligible to fill all of the bowl slots.
There are a ton of moving pieces here, but the gist of the situation is this: Liberty currently sits at 4-4 with 3 FBS wins plus their 1 eligible FCS win against Idaho State. This means the Flames will need to win 2 of their next 3 games, with the season finale against FCS Norfolk State being irrelevant to LU’s bowl hopes. Should the Flames get over that hurdle, they will need 52 FBS teams to finish with less than 6 eligible victories.
That’s the Reader’s Digest version (does Reader’s Digest still exist?) of things. We can get into the weeds on the technicalities and contingencies 1-582824821 of NCAA bylaws, but that seems ridiculous right now. Let’s just look at the the teams who are in, the teams who are out, and everyone in between.
Number of Teams Eliminated: 23 (+10 from last week)
Number of Teams Bowl Eligible: 49 (+11)
Liberty’s Magic Number: 29 Teams need to be eliminated
Number of 5 Win Teams (1 Win from Eligibility): 29 (+4)
Number of 6 Loss Teams (1 Loss from Elimination): 11 (-3)
Number of 5 Loss Teams (2 Losses from Elimination): 17 (NC) Not including Hawaii (6-5)
Number of 4 Loss Teams (3 Losses from Elimination): 28 (+8) Including Liberty, Not including Western Michigan (6-4)
Number of 5-3 Teams: 3
Number of FPI Projected Ineligible Teams: 52 (-3) Including Liberty
Bowl Eligible Teams |
Eliminated Teams |
| Central Florida | Connecticut |
| Cincinnati | Navy |
| South Florida | Tulsa |
| Houston | Louisville |
| Clemson | North Carolina |
| Boston College | Rutgers |
| Syracuse | Nebraska |
| NC State | Old Dominion |
| Virginia | Western Kentucky |
| Duke | Texas El-Paso |
| Oklahoma | Rice |
| West Virginia | New Mexico State |
| Texas | Kent State |
| Michigan | Bowling Green |
| Ohio State | Ball State |
| Michigan State | Central Michigan |
| Penn State | San Jose State |
| Wisconsin | UNLV |
| Iowa | Oregon State |
| Middle Tennessee State | UCLA |
| Florida International | Arkansas |
| Alabama-Birmingham | Georgia State |
| Louisiana Tech | South Alabama |
| North Texas | |
| Notre Dame | |
| Army | |
| Buffalo | |
| Ohio | |
| Northern Illinois | |
| Western Michigan | |
| Utah State | |
| Boise State | |
| Fresno State | |
| San Diego State | |
| Hawaii | |
| Washington State | |
| Washington | |
| Oregon | |
| Utah | |
| Georgia | |
| Kentucky | |
| Florida | |
| Alabama | |
| Louisiana State | |
| Auburn | |
| Mississippi State | |
| Troy | |
| Georgia Southern | |
| Appalachian State |
6 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| East Carolina (2-6) | @ Tulane (4-5) | 9.9% | 3-9 |
| Kansas (3-6) | @ Kansas State (3-6) | 27.2% | 3-9 |
| Kansas State (3-6) | Kansas (3-6) | 72.8% | 4-8 |
| Texas-San Antonio (3-6) | Florida International (6-3) | 25.9% | 3-9 |
| UMass (4-6) | BYU (4-5) | 27.5% | 4-8 |
| Miami-Ohio (3-6) | Ohio (6-3) | 39.2% | 4-8 |
| Colorado State (3-6) | @ Nevada (5-4) | 18.1% | 3-9 |
| Wyoming (4-6) | BYE | N/A | 5-7 |
| Air Force (3-6) | New Mexico (3-6) | 81.2% | 6-6 |
| New Mexico (3-6) | @ Air Force (3-6) | 18.8% | 3-9 |
| Texas State (3-6) | Appalachian State (6-2) | 6.7% | 3-9 |
5 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Southern Methodist (4-5) | @ Connecticut (1-8) | 81.6% | 5-7 |
| Tulane (4-5) | East Carolina (2-6) | 90.1% | 6-6 |
| Florida State (4-5) | @ #4 Notre Dame (9-0) | 9.1% | 4-8 |
| Wake Forest (4-5) | @ #21 NC State (6-2) | 16.2% | 5-7 |
| Texas Christian (4-5) | @ #13 West Virginia (7-1) | 18.6% | 6-6 |
| Indiana (4-5) | Maryland (5-4) | 51.0% | 5-7 |
| Illinois (4-5) | @ Nebraska (2-7) | 20.0% | 4-8 |
| Minnesota (4-5) | Purdue (5-4) | 22.5% | 4-8 |
| Charlotte (4-5) | @ Marshall (5-3) | 13.7% | 4-8 |
| Florida Atlantic (4-5) | Western Kentucky (1-8) | 88.1% | 6-6 |
| BYU (4-5) | @ UMass (4-6) | 72.5% | 6-6 |
| Eastern Michigan (5-5) | Akron (4-4) | 76.3% | 7-5 |
| Arizona (5-5) | @ #8 Washington State (8-1) | 22.2% | 5-7 |
| Tennessee (4-5) | #9 Kentucky (7-2) | 33.6% | 4-8 |
| Vanderbilt (4-5) | @ Missouri (5-4) | 15.8% | 5-7 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette (4-5) | Georgia State (2-7) | 73.4% | 6-6 |
4 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Temple (5-4) | @ Houston (7-2) | 29.3% | 7-5 |
| Memphis (5-4) | Tulsa (2-7) | 86.3% | 8-4 |
| Pittsburgh (5-4) | Virginia Tech (4-4) | 46.4% | 5-7 |
| Virginia Tech (4-4) | @ Pittsburgh (5-4) | 53.6% | 6-5 |
| Georgia Tech (5-4) | Miami (5-4) | 51.2% | 7-5 |
| Miami (5-4) | @ Georgia Tech (5-4) | 48.8% | 7-5 |
| Baylor (5-4) | @ #24 Iowa State (5-3) | 18.4% | 5-7 |
| Texas Tech (5-4) | #17 Texas (6-3) | 60.2% | 8-4 |
| Oklahoma State (5-4) | @ #7 Oklahoma (8-1) | 11.2% | 5-7 |
| Maryland (5-4) | @ Indiana (4-5) | 49.0% | 5-7 |
| Northwestern (5-4) | @ #16 Iowa (6-3) | 22.2% | 7-5 |
| Purdue (5-4) | @ Minnesota (4-5) | 77.5% | 8-4 |
| Southern Mississippi (4-4) | @ Alabama-Birmingham (8-1) | 14.6% | 5-6 |
| Liberty (4-4) | @ #25 Virginia (6-3) | 7.8% | 6-6* |
| Akron (4-4) | @ Eastern Michigan (5-5) | 23.7% | 5-7 |
| Toledo (5-4) | @ Northern Illinois (6-3) | 49.8% | 7-5 |
| Nevada (5-4) | Colorado State (3-6) | 81.9% | 8-4 |
| Stanford (5-4) | Oregon State (2-7) | 96.4% | 8-4 |
| California (5-4) | @ USC (5-4) | 31.0% | 6-6 |
| USC (5-4) | California (5-4) | 69.0% | 7-5 |
| Arizona State (5-4) | UCLA (2-7) | 80.5% | 7-5 |
| Colorado (5-4) | #8 Washington State (8-1) | 32.8% | 5-7 |
| Missouri (5-4) | Vanderbilt (4-5) | 84.2% | 8-4 |
| #20 Texas A&M (5-4) | Ole Miss (5-4) | 80.7% | 8-4 |
| Ole Miss (5-4) | @ #20 Texas A&M (5-4) | 19.3% | 6-6* |
| Coastal Carolina (5-4) | Arkansas State (5-4) | 43.1% | 6-6 |
| Louisiana Monroe (5-4) | @ South Alabama (2-7) | 63.1% | 7-5 |
| Arkansas State (5-4) | @ Coastal Carolina (5-4) | 56.9% | 8-4 |
5-3 Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| #24 Iowa State (5-3) | Baylor (5-4) | 81.6% | 8-4 |
| Marshall (5-3) | @ Charlotte (4-5) | 86.3% | 8-3 |
| South Carolina (5-3) | @ #11 Florida (6-3) | 32.5% | 6-6 |
Rough week for Liberty’s bowl chances. Most obviously, the Flames dropped a VERY winnable road game at UMass in triple overtime after leading by 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Absolutely brutal. But enough editorializing… On top of that, we had quite a few other results that really hurt the odds of Liberty going bowling even if they somehow manage to get eligible, as you can now see the projected number of ineligible teams (if you don’t include Liberty) has dropped down to 51, just one team short of Liberty’s magic number. The Flames will have to pull off an enormous upset (by FPI standards) against either UVA or Auburn in the next two weeks, then beat New Mexico State at home to get to the necessary win threshold. Let’s just say, the window is closing. 6-6 in their first FBS season is nothing to be ashamed of, especially on its face. However, if that is the final outcome, the Flames will have to be kicking themselves. They had a multitude of opportunities to win on the road against New Mexico State and UMass, and just could not get the job done. Just a few weeks left of the college football regular season. That’s tough to believe. It seems to go quicker every year.
