In seasons past, we here at A Sea of Red have spent countless hours producing FCS Playoff projections. Thankfully those days are over. Now we have the privilege of Bowl projections!
With Liberty in their final season of transition to FBS, the Flames are not technically earmarked for bowl eligibility. However, should Liberty get to 6 eligible victories (5 FBS wins + 1 FCS win would do the trick) they would go to a bowl game if there are not enough FBS teams eligible to fill all of the bowl slots.
There are a ton of moving pieces here, but the gist of the situation is this: Liberty currently sits at 4-5 with 3 FBS wins plus their 1 eligible FCS win against Idaho State. This means the Flames will need to win their final 2 FBS games, with the season finale against FCS Norfolk State being irrelevant to LU’s bowl hopes. Should the Flames get over that hurdle, they will need 52 FBS teams to finish with less than 6 eligible victories.
That’s the Reader’s Digest version (does Reader’s Digest still exist?) of things. We can get into the weeds on the technicalities and contingencies 1-582824821 of NCAA bylaws, but that seems ridiculous right now. Let’s just look at the the teams who are in, the teams who are out, and everyone in between.
Number of Teams Eliminated: 30 (+7 from last week)
Number of Teams Bowl Eligible: 65 (+16)
Liberty’s Magic Number: 22 Teams need to be eliminated
Number of 6 Loss Teams (1 Loss from Elimination): 9 (-2)
Number of 5 Loss Teams (2 Losses from Elimination): 24 (+7) Not including already bowl eligible teams, or ineligible Ole Miss
Number of 5-4 Teams: 1
Number of FPI Projected Ineligible Teams: 49 (-3) Including Liberty
Bowl Eligible Teams |
Eliminated Teams |
| Central Florida | East Carolina |
| Temple | Connecticut |
| Cincinnati | Navy |
| South Florida | Tulsa |
| Houston | Louisville |
| Memphis | North Carolina |
| Clemson | Kansas |
| Syracuse | Rutgers |
| Boston College | Old Dominion |
| NC State | Western Kentucky |
| Pittsburgh | Texas-San Antonio |
| Virginia | Texas-El Paso |
| Georgia Tech | Rice |
| Duke | New Mexico State |
| Oklahoma | Massachusetts |
| West Virginia | Kent State |
| Texas | Bowling Green |
| Iowa State | Ball State |
| Michigan | Central Michigan |
| Ohio State | Colorado State |
| Michigan State | New Mexico |
| Penn State | San Jose State |
| Northwestern | Nevada-Las Vegas |
| Wisconsin | Oregon State |
| Iowa | UCLA |
| Middle Tennessee State | Arkansas |
| Florida International | Georgia State |
| Marshall | South Alabama |
| Alabama-Birmingham | Texas State |
| Louisiana Tech | Ole Miss* |
| North Texas | |
| Notre Dame | |
| Army | |
| Buffalo | |
| Ohio | |
| Northern Illinois | |
| Western Michigan | |
| Eastern Michigan | |
| Utah State | |
| Boise State | |
| Fresno State | |
| Nevada | |
| San Diego State | |
| Hawaii | |
| Washington State | |
| Washington | |
| Stanford | |
| Oregon | |
| California | |
| Utah | |
| Arizona State | |
| Georgia | |
| Kentucky | |
| Florida | |
| Missouri | |
| Alabama | |
| Louisiana State | |
| Texas A&M | |
| Auburn | |
| Mississippi State | |
| Troy | |
| Appalachian State | |
| Georgia Southern | |
| Louisiana-Monroe | |
| Arkansas State |
6 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Florida State (4-6) | #17 Boston College (7-3) | 34.8% | 4-8 |
| Texas Christian (4-6) | @ Baylor (5-5) | 53.5% | 5-7 |
| Kansas State (4-6) | Texas Tech (5-5) | 24.6% | 4-8 |
| Illinois (4-6) | #21 Iowa (6-4) | 10.4% | 4-8 |
| UNC-Charlotte (4-6) | Florida International (7-3) | 30.9% | 4-8 |
| Miami-OH (4-6) | @ Northern Illinois (7-3) | 30.6% | 5-7 |
| Wyoming (4-6) | Air Force (4-6) | 46.8% | 5-7 |
| Air Force (4-6) | @ Wyoming (4-6) | 53.2% | 6-6 |
| Vanderbilt (4-6) | Ole Miss (5-5) | 51.2% | 6-6 |
5 Loss Teams
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| Southern Methodist (5-5) | Memphis (6-4) | 26.5% | 6-6 |
| Tulane (5-5) | @ Houston (7-3) | 26.4% | 6-6 |
| Wake Forest (5-5) | Pittsburgh (6-4) | 47.9% | 5-7 |
| Virginia Tech (4-5) | Miami (5-5) | 36.8% | 5-6 |
| Miami (5-5) | @ Virginia Tech (4-5) | 63.2% | 7-5 |
| Baylor (5-5) | Texas Christian (4-6) | 46.5% | 5-7 |
| Texas Tech (5-5) | @ Kansas State (4-6) | 75.4% | 7-5 |
| Oklahoma State (5-5) | #9 West Virginia (8-1) | 36.4% | 6-6 |
| Maryland (5-5) | #10 Ohio State (9-1) | 18.0% | 5-7 |
| Indiana (5-5) | @ #4 Michigan (9-1) | 4.0% | 5-7 |
| Purdue (5-5) | Wisconsin (6-4) | 51.1% | 7-5 |
| Minnesota (5-5) | Northwestern (6-4) | 39.6% | 5-7 |
| Florida Atlantic (5-5) | @ North Texas (7-3) | 24.0% | 6-6 |
| Southern Mississippi (4-5) | Louisiana Tech (7-3) | 45.7% | 5-6 |
| BYU (5-5) | New Mexico State (3-7) | 94.2% | 6-6 |
| Liberty (4-5) | @ #24 Auburn (6-4) | 2.5% | 6-6 (Not eligible) |
| Akron (4-5) | Bowling Green (2-8) | 78.6% | 5-7 |
| Toledo (5-5) | @ Kent State (2-8) | 85.8% | 7-5 |
| Arizona (5-5) | @ #8 Washington State (9-1) | 19.8% | 5-7 |
| Southern California (5-5) | @ UCLA (2-8) | 62.3% | 6-6 |
| Colorado (5-5) | Utah (7-3) | 22.5% | 5-7 |
| Tennessee (5-5) | Missouri (6-4) | 31.6% | 5-7 |
| Coastal Carolina (5-5) | Georgia Southern (7-3) | 30.3% | 6-6 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) | South Alabama (2-8) | 84.6% | 6-6 |
5-4 Team
Team |
Upcoming Opponent |
ESPN FPI Chance of Victory |
FPI Projected Final Record |
| South Carolina (5-4) | Chattanooga (6-4) | 98.5% | 7-5 |
So in case you didn’t notice, the window continues to close on Liberty’s bowl hopes. The largest factor is, of course, the fact that the Flames remain 2 FBS wins short of any sort of eligibility with only 2 FBS games remaining on the schedule. It’s still possible, however pulling off a win on the Plains at Auburn will require something of a miracle. ESPN FPI gives LU a 2.5% chance of victory on Saturday. As a bit of perspective, the same FPI projected the Flames to have just a 2.6% chance of winning at Baylor to open the 2017 season. The difference? The FPI mistakenly projected Baylor to be a good team at the start of the 2017 season. However, with the benefit of hind sight we know that Baylor was awful, and went on to a 1-11 record. Going into the last couple of weeks of the season, Auburn is essentially a known quantity by computer metrics standards. Therefore, the FPI is much more likely to be accurate about Liberty’s chances at this point. SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE!
On top of that, the things that need to happen beyond Liberty’s control just don’t seem to be panning out. The Flames need 52 FBS teams not based in Lynchburg to fall short of 6 eligible wins, and that is looking less likely by the week. The FPI currently projects 48 teams falling short, including Liberty. On top of that there are 2 projected 5-6 teams (Southern Miss and Virginia Tech), and both are looking for a 12th game to possibly become bowl eligible. So that raises an interesting possibility discussed around A Sea of Red (formerly Flames Nation). Could a 5 win Liberty buy out their Norfolk State season finale to take on a 5 win Virginia Tech program for a possible bowl birth? It’s certainly possible, but I would still classify it as unlikely. My hunch is that Virginia Tech will be searching out a little bit more of a “gimme”, and after losing to ODU (a team Liberty thrashed 52-10) the Hokies may want to steer clear of the Flames. There is also a high probability that Liberty will have no bowl to play for. So, other than the publicity of taking on an in-state ACC opponent, the benefits of buying out of an FCS home game seem few. Nevertheless, it could make a lot of sense for both parties, and stranger things have happened.
For those of you who are eternal optimists, if you are compiling a list of team to root against, obviously start with the above lists of 6 Loss Teams and 5 Loss Teams. If we look at things a little bit like an election (everyone loves politics, right?), consider the teams on the list projected to go 5-7 as seats our side needs to “hold”, teams projected to go 6-6 as possibilities to “flip” to our column, and those projected to go 7-5 as likely out of play. Right now that means we need projections to hold for 18 teams, and we need to flip any additional 4. There are currently 10 teams on the 6-6 list. We’ll see, but things aren’t looking great for Liberty’s bowl hopes.
