The Flames and Chanticleers meet for the 11th time in school history with the series knotted at 5 games a piece. Either Coastal or Liberty has gone on to win the conference championship in 8 of the past 9 years. Whoever comes out the victor Saturday evening will have a leg up on this year’s conference championship race.
Why Coastal can win this game
The Chanticleers are simply the better team, with their #4 national ranking and having won 6 consecutive games and 12 of their past 13 dating back to 2012. Their national ranking is the highest in school history, and the highest any Big South football team has ever been ranked. Coastal is 6-0 with all of their wins coming over FCS competition including 3 victories on the road.
Coastal is on a roll and is feeling (and playing) very confident, as they should. After scoring an average of 31 points in their first 2 games of the season, the Chanticleers have racked up an average of 49 points per game in their last 4 outings including 3 games with 50 or more points. Coastal has won their last 3 games by an average of 31 points.
Taliaferro is on a record setting pace
The Chants have a 6 game Big South win streak dating back to 2012 including last year’s 36-12 victory over Liberty. Coastal has won their past 6 Big South games by an average of 31 points per game.
Lorenzo Taliaferro. Kid is a one man wrecking crew. He has rushed for nearly 140 yards per game and 13 touchdowns already this season. He is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. The Big South record for rushing touchdowns is 21. He’s on pace for 26.
Taliaferro and the Chanticleers have the 5th best rushing offense in all of FCS as they rush for more than 270 yards per game.
Coastal knows how to close games out while the Flames are still learning. The Chanticleers have outscored their opponents 56-36 in the 4th quarter this season. Meanwhile, Liberty has been outscored 40-17 in its first 6 games of the year. The Flames have twice lost games in which it led during the 4th quarter.
Why Liberty can win this game
Kevin Fogg and Liberty’s defense hopes to slow down Coastal’s offense
The Flames don’t lose at home. Liberty is currently riding an 18 game home Big South win streak. Liberty hasn’t lost a Big South home game since 2006, Danny Rocco’s 1st season. Coastal hasn’t won in Lynchburg since 2005. The Flames have beaten 3 top 25 programs during the streak, including the last outing against #6 Stony Brook. During the streak, Liberty is outscoring its Big South opponents 43-18.
Along the same lines, Liberty is 4-1 all-time at Williams Stadium against Coastal Carolina. Coastal’s only win came during Liberty’s 1-10 2005 season, and they needed triple overtime to win that game. The Chanticleers’ last 2 trips to Williams Stadium have been embarrassing; Liberty defeated Coastal 58-13 in 2009 and 63-27 in 2011.
Liberty’s defense has been stellar all year. The Flames rank in the top 10 in the country in both scoring defense and red zone defense. Liberty has also been stingy against the run allowing just 126 rushing yards per game. The Flames held the vaunted Old Dominion offense, who was averaging 49.8 points per game coming into the matchup, to just 21 points.
Been there, almost done that. In Liberty’s 3 previous games this season as underdogs (ODU, Richmond, Kent State), the Flames nearly pulled off the upset. All 3 were on the road.
Liberty is coming off a bye week. Dating back to 2007, the Flames are 5-1 when coming off an open week including last year’s win at home against Gardner-Webb. Liberty’s only loss during this stretch was in 2011 when they fell to Stony Brook on Long Island.
X-Factor for this game
Can Liberty’s offense score enough points? Yes, the Flames are averaging 34 points scored per game, but in their 3 losses Liberty is only averaging 16 points per game. While Liberty’s defense has been steady and consistent throughout the season, the offense has sputtered at times. 16 points will not be enough to beat the Chanticleers. Josh Woodrum and company must be able to score closer to their season average of 34 points per game to get the win.
Score Prediction
Liberty 31, Coastal 27
This is it Liberty. If you want to be taken seriously by the rest of the nation, it starts here. If you want to put the FBS schools who could invite you on notice, it starts here. Not only do you have to win this, but you can’t have any more let downs the rest of the year. Liberty, you made it tough on yourself and you can only blame yourself for that. But, and I can’t stress the but enough, luckily there is a way out of it. All you have to do is win. That is the grace in which this season can be saved!
Unfortunately, all of our evidence points towards Liberty losing this game. I hope I’m wrong, but I just can’t predict LU to win this big match up. And if they do, I can’t imagine that they go on to win the Big South’s automatic bid. That is too unlike Liberty. I hope and pray that I am wrong but I can’t predict a Liberty win in a game in which it could seal a trip to the playoffs.