ESPN FPI updated their season predictions for Liberty after the Flames’ victory over Southern Miss. As the schedule currently stands, Liberty has a 0.8% chance to go undefeated according to ESPN.

Opponent: Liberty’s chances to win according to ESPN FPI

@ Virginia Tech: 11.1%
Western Carolina: 98.4%
@ NC State: 28.3%
UMass:  96.9%
@ Coastal Carolina: 28.7%

Liberty wasn’t expected to reach 6-0, but here we are with the Flames sitting just on the outside of the Top 25. Liberty will be a heavy favorite in its two remaining home games against Western Carolina and UMass, and the Flames will be significant underdogs in each of its three road games against Virginia Tech, NC State, and Coastal Carolina.

For those that aren’t familiar with FPI, here’s a definition from ESPN’s website:

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.”