We have reached the midpoint of the 2022 football season for the Liberty Flames who are 5-1 entering this week’s game against Gardner-Webb. Head coach Hugh Freeze and the Flames were able to overcome a slow start to a 42-24 win over UMass on Saturday evening.

Shedro Louis scored three touchdowns to help pace the Flames. Johnathan Bennett responded from his struggles in the first quarter to overcome a 7-0 deficit to lead the team to the victory. The third quarterback to start a game for Liberty this season, Bennett is now 2-0 all-time in his Liberty career as a starter.

Despite its win, Liberty fell two spots in ESPN’s Football Power Index to No. 66. The Flames are the second-highest ranked team in Virginia, behind No. 55 James Madison.

Per ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) is a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.” FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.

Before Liberty’s seventh contest of the season coming up this Saturday against Gardner-Webb, FPI gives the Flames a 9.5% chance to win out. Here is how the computer projection win model forecasts Liberty’s final six games of the regular season.

GARDNER-WEBB – 97.2 WIN PERCENTAGE

October 15 — The Runnin’ Bulldogs will come into Williams Stadium this weekend looking to spoil the Flames’ homecoming. Gardner-Webb is no stranger to playing FBS opponents as this will be their third game against a team from the highest classification in the country.

GWU lost to Coastal Carolina (31-27) on Sept. 10 and Marshall (28-7) on Oct. 1. This past week, the Runnin’ Bulldogs ended a four game losing streak with a shutout win over Robert Morris, 48-0.

The former Big South rival, Gardner-Webb has faced Liberty on 24 previous occasions. Liberty owns the series record, 14-9-1.

BYU — 46.5 WIN PERCENTAGE

October 22 — The Cougars came within one score of Notre Dame in Las Vegas this past Saturday night, falling 28-20. The Cougars are 4-2 on the season  and just slipped out of the top 25 polls following their loss to the Irish.

This week, BYU plays host to Arkansas on ESPN at 3:30 p.m. Of course, those are Liberty’s next two opponents following this week’s game against Gardner-Webb.

BYU will come to Williams Stadium next week in one of the most anticipated home contests in program history. The game is expected to be a sellout and will likely come close to setting the program record for attendance at a home game.

The two teams have only met on one previous occasion, with BYU knocking off Liberty, 31-24, on Nov. 9, 2019.

ARKANSAS — 31.9 WIN PERCENTAGE

November 5 — The Razorbacks were a preseason top 25 team and reached as high as No. 10 in the country earlier this season. They have been unable to maintain that lofty ranking following three straight losses, all against ranked SEC foes.

Arkansas lost to No. 23 Mississippi State, 40-17, this past weekend. They will be looking to get back in the win column and improve on their 3-3 record by traveling to BYU this week. Things don’t get any easier as the Hogs play at Auburn prior to hosting Liberty.

This will be the first ever meeting between the two schools and Liberty’s third ever game against an SEC program. The Flames lost to Auburn, 53-0, in its first year at the FBS level, and fell to Ole Miss, 27-14, last season.

UCONN — 86.7 WIN PERCENTAGE

November 12 — The national media might not be paying attention yet, but UConn is much improved under first year head coach Jim Mora. The Huskies hadn’t won more than 2 games in a season since 2017 and haven’t surpassed the 3-win plateau since 2015.

UConn has won back to back games after knocking off Fresno State, 19-14, and then defeating FIU, 33-12, this past weekend. The Huskies are now 3-4 on the season with a few winnable games left on their schedule including this week at Ball State and when they play host to UMass prior to facing the Flames.

The Huskies defeated Liberty in the only previous meeting between the two programs. They won that game, 59-0, in 2005 in what was the final season for Liberty head coach Ken Karcher, a campaign the Flames finished at just 1-10.

VIRGINIA TECH — 77.1 WIN PERCENTAGE

November 19 — The way things are trending, Liberty will be favored when Virginia Tech visits Lynchburg just prior to Thanksgiving. Things have not been going well for the Hokies and first year head coach Brent Pry.

VT has lost three straight, including a 45-29 setback against Pitt this past weekend. In that game, the Hokies gave up 320 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns to Pitt running back Israel Abanikanda. Virginia Tech is more than a touchdown underdog as they host Miami this Saturday with a trip to Raleigh to face No. 15 NC State to follow.

The all-time series between Liberty and Virginia Tech is currently knotted at one game a piece. The Flames got the best of the Hokies, 38-35, on Nov. 7, 2020 in Blacksburg. This year’s meeting will be the first one played at Williams Stadium.

NEW MEXICO STATE — 97.6 WIN PERCENTAGE

November 26 — New Mexico State is arguably the worst team in all of FBS this season as they have had difficulty finding any success. They did pick up a win over Hawaii in late September, but were then knocked off at home by FIU, 21-7.

The Flames and New Mexico State played each other in an unconventional, in-season home and home series in 2018 and 2019 during Liberty’s first two years at the FBS level when games came at a premium. This year’s game will be the first meeting since then with the Flames owning the series record, 3-1, having won three straight.

Both Liberty and New Mexico State will be joining Conference USA next season.