The 2024 ESPN Football Power Index projects Liberty to finish the upcoming season under second year head coach Jamey Chadwell at 8.7-3.9 (so basically 9 wins). That number seems a little low and the Flames only winning 8-9 games would be a disappointment after the team went 13-1 a year ago.
According to the metric, the Flames have a 2.6% chance to go undefeated which is tied for the 9th best odds at finishing undefeated among all FBS teams. FPI also gives Liberty an 89.7% chance to win six games or more and advance to a sixth straight bowl game.
The metric also makes projects for each game of the 2024 Liberty football schedule. let’s take a look at the percentages for a Flames’ victory in each game on the schedule.
For those that aren’t familiar with the FPI, you can read the definition of the index here.
Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). That rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.
Below, you can see the likelihood of Liberty football winning each of their games on the 2024 football schedule, according to this metric.
LIBERTY’S GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS (Team FPI Rank)
97.7% – Aug. 31 vs Campbell (N/A)
67.0% – Sep. 07 at New Mexico State* (127)
74.3% – Sep. 14 vs UTEP* (111)
62.0% – Sep. 21 vs East Carolina (94)
36.3% – Sep. 28 at Appalachian State (67)
83.4% – Oct. 08 vs FIU* (132)
76.5% – Oct. 23 at Kennesaw State* (131)
63.6% – Oct. 30 vs Jacksonville State* (93)
60.5% – Nov. 09 at Middle Tennessee* (107)
64.9% – Nov. 16 at UMass (125)
69.7% – Nov. 23 vs Western Kentucky* (109)
70.7% – Nov. 29 at Sam Houston* (130)
*CUSA game
