Liberty hosts BYE this weekend before beginning conference play next Saturday at Kennesaw State. Here are some thoughts on the team as we near the midway point of the season with conference play looming.
Thoughts about the offense.
We heard all off-season about the new offense under new offensive coordinator Joe Dailey and how it was going to be more uptempo. Through the first 5 games, it doesn’t feel like it’s been more uptempo. There have been a couple of delay of game penalties and times when Liberty had to call a timeout when the play clock was running low. We’ve also seen numerous times when the team has huddled or the play clock has ticked below 10 seconds. Sitting in the press box at Williams Stadium, we are right next to the coaches box, and several times this season we’ve heard the coaching staff yelling at the offense to speed it up. Coach Gill mentioned during the preseason that he expected the offense to run 80-85 plays per game. So far this season, Liberty is averaging 70.2 plays per game. In Gill’s first 4 seasons, the Flames averaged 68 plays per game. There’s been a small uptick, but not as much as was expected. Perhaps once Buckshot Calvert gets more comfortable, the offense will pick up its tempo a bit.
Scoring and total offense are down from Gill’s averages since he’s been at Liberty. Gill-led Liberty teams have averaged 30.8 points per game and 404 yards of total offense during his first 4 years. This season, Liberty is averaging 28.4 points per game and 320 yards of total offense. Only Presbyterian is averaging fewer yards per game of total offense in the Big South than LU. The Flames still rank dead last in the country with 10 passes that have been intercepted this season. Ball security was a huge point of emphasis from Coach Gill and Coach Dailey to Buckshot during Robert Morris week, and he responded without throwing a pick.
Thoughts about the defense.
The Flames’ defense has played really well for probably 90% of the season. They’ve forced 15 turnovers on the year, tied for 3rd most in all of FCS football and the most in the Big South by a wide margin. Robert Wimberly’s squad has bent, but not broken on numerous occasions as they rank in the top 20 nationally in red zone defense. There are play makers aplenty as 5 different players have intercepted a pass and 4 others have forced or recovered a fumble.
It’s the other 10% that Coach Wimberly has been concentrating on during the bye week. It’s the occasional missed tackles that spring big plays, the every now and then lapses in judgement on pursuit angles, and the once in a while breakdowns in coverage. If Liberty’s defense is able to shore up these areas, they will have one of the best defenses, not only in the Big South, but in the country.
I can’t help but to mention Juwan Wells. He leads the Big South in sacks and tackles by a lineman. He’s 2nd in the conference in tackles by all positions and tackles for loss. Wells’ 48 tackles leads all of FCS football for tackles by a lineman. Wimberly compares him to Robert Mathis. The sky is the limit for the 6’2″, 255-lb sophomore.
Thoughts about the special teams.
Gill brought in new special teams coordinator Scott Downing to help improve the team’s performance on special teams. It’s paid early dividends. The kick return game ranks 8th in the country averaging 26.2 yards per kick return spearheaded by Frankie Hickson. The Flames are 2nd in the Big South in punt return yards. Trey Turner has proved to be a solid punter, averaging 41 yards per punt. True freshman Alex Probert has filled in admirably for John Lunsford. Probert has made 5 of his 7 field goals including a long of 51. He had one blocked, which wasn’t his fault, and had his other miss hit the upright. Probert has had 15 of his 28 kickoffs go for a touchback.
Thoughts about conference play.
I have this overwhelming sense of playoffs or bust for the Flames’ coaching staff this season, and the only sure way to the playoffs is to win the Big South’s auto-bid.
Charleston Southern looks the part of defending conference champ. They’ve withstood injuries, scandal, and a tough schedule to remain in the top 10. The Bucs took North Dakota State to overtime before falling and knocked off Coastal Carolina in overtime. Jamey Chadwell’s squad took care of Monmouth in New Jersey with relative ease. Their remaining conference schedule includes home games against Presbyterian, Gardner-Webb, and Kennesaw State. It’s highly doubtful they lose any of those games, meaning Liberty must beat the Buccaneers to have any chance of winning the auto-bid. That game on November 12th will be huge.
Having Monmouth and Gardner-Webb at home makes those games very winnable for the Flames, and Presbyterian is just bad. The Kennesaw State game does worry me though. The Owls are 3-1 and have won 3 straight games, including consecutive road wins at Duquesne and Furman. It’s no question KSU has had circled on their schedule “10/15 vs Liberty” since it was released. They are looking at that game as a way to announce to the rest of the league that they have arrived.
Notable quotes.
B.J. Farrow on the importance of this week – “Just win the bye week. We’ve got to get better and better each day during the bye.”
Dante Shells on the team’s mindset right now – “Playing good last week (against Robert Morris), definitely boosts our confidence. Then, have a good week of practice during the bye week. Then, the following week, leading up to our next game, I feel like that will definitely give us a big boost going into the rest of conference.”
Solomon McGinty on conference play & making the playoffs – “(We need to) focus on every week. Conference, not saying it’s going to be a cake walk, but we know we’re not going to see Virginia Tech, SMU, Jacksonville State in our conference. We’re going to respect the guys. They have athletes, but we’re just going to focus throughout that game. We’re not going to lose or not look at that goal of going to the playoffs like we have that mindset of you will see us in November. As long as we play Liberty football, and get back on track with our basic stuff, and get our keys and be successful, we’re going to get there. It’s all about having confidence.”
My prediction:
Liberty 28, BYE 25
