This season the FCS playoff picture has a slight shift, with the MEAC opting out of their auto-bid to play in a Classic against the SWAC. This leaves 10 automatic bids, and 14 at-large bids to be had. For the remainder of the season, we will break down the ever evolving playoff picture week to week. Emphasis is placed on the traditional, but not official 7 division 1 win threshold.
This week saw several teams get “eliminated”, by virtue of losing the ability to get to 7 D1 wins. This is obviously good news for Liberty. However Liberty’s at-large hopes also took a couple of hits in this week’s results as a few near lock playoff teams took losses as well, giving bubble teams quality wins.
Worst Results for Liberty:
Colgate 31 – Fordham 29
Fordham losing is a big hit, because they are pretty close to a sure thing to get an at-large. This loss essentially stole an at-large bid from another league, because Fordham is the only team in the Patriot that has a realistic shot at one.
Charleston Southern 33 – Coastal Carolina 25
There is room for disagreement on this one, but CSU’s win all but assured the Buc’s route to the playoffs. Coastal is a solid lock for an at-large as well. Can Liberty get a bid if they win out and make the Big South a 3 bid league? They will need some help.
Portland State 35 – Montana 16
With their loss to Portland State, Montana is at best a bubble team at this point. Liberty’s early signature win is looking less impressive at this point. Montana can still get in to the field of 24, but they are trending downward.
Best Results for Liberty:
Illinois State 27 – Indiana State 24
Illinois State was able to stay unbeaten in conference, and knock Indiana State onto our bubble. If Liberty has a shot of getting a bid, the MVFC cannot be a five bid league. Liberty needs Indiana State out of the picture.
Youngstown State 23 – Western Illinois 21
Western Illinois is another MVFC bubble team, so a Leathernecks loss is good for Liberty.
Conference Projections
Big Sky
Auto-Bid:
Eastern Washington (6-2, 5-0)
At-Large:
Southern Utah (6-2, 5-0)
Portland State (7-1, 4-1)
Northern Arizona (5-3, 3-2)
Bubble:
Montana (4-4, 3-2)
Montana State (4-4, 2-3)
Still Alive:
North Dakota (5-4, 3-3)
Big South
Auto-Bid:
Charleston Southern (7-1, 4-0)
At-Large:
Coastal Carolina (2-1, 7-1)
Still Alive:
Liberty (4-4, 1-2)
Colonial
Auto-Bid:
Richmond (7-1, 5-0)
At-Large:
James Madison (7-2, 4-2)
William & Mary (6-2, 4-1)
Bubble:
Towson (5-3, 3-2)
Still Alive:
Villanova (4-4, 3-2)
New Hampshire (4-4, 2-3)
Missouri Valley
Auto-Bid:
Illinois State (7-1, 5-0)
At-Large:
North Dakota State (6-2, 4-1)
South Dakota State (6-2, 3-2)
Northern Iowa (4-4, 2-3)
Bubble:
Indiana State (4-4, 2-3)
Western Illinois (4-4, 3-2)
Still Alive:
South Dakota (4-4, 2-3)
Youngstown State (4-4, 2-3)
Northeast
Auto-Bid:
Duquesne (6-3, 3-1)
Still Alive:
Bryant (4-4, 2-1) *cannot get to 7 D-1 wins, but still alive for auto-bid
Central Connecticut (4-5, 3-1) *cannot get to 7 D-1 wins, but still alive for auto-bid
St. Francis (4-3, 2-1) *cannot get to 7 D-1 wins, but still alive for auto-bid
Ohio Valley
Auto-Bid:
Jacksonville State (7-1, 5-0)
At-Large:
Eastern Illinois (5-3, 5-0)
Eastern Kentucky (5-3, 4-1)
Bubble:
Tennessee-Martin (4-3, 4-1)
Patriot
Auto-Bid:
Colgate (4-4, 3-0)
At-Large:
Fordham (7-2, 3-1)
Still Alive:
Lehigh (4-4, 2-1)
Holy Cross (4-4, 1-2)
Bucknell (4-4, 1-2)
Pioneer
Auto-Bid:
Dayton (8-0, 5-0)
Still Alive:
Jacksonville (6-2, 3-2)
San Diego (6-2, 4-1)
Morehead State (5-3, 4-1)
Marist (4-4, 3-2)
Southern
Auto-Bid:
Chattanooga (7-1, 5-0)
At-Large:
Citadel (6-2, 5-0)
Still Alive:
Western Carolina (5-3, 3-2)
Furman (4-4, 2-2)
Southland
Auto-Bid:
McNeese State (8-0, 7-0)
At-Large:
Sam Houston State (6-2, 5-1)
Bubble:
Central Arkansas (5-3, 5-1)
SE Louisiana (4-4, 3-3)
