This season the FCS playoff picture has a slight shift, with the MEAC opting out of their auto-bid to play in a Classic against the SWAC. This leaves 10 automatic bids, and 14 at-large bids to be had. For the remainder of the season, we will break down the ever evolving playoff picture week to week. Emphasis is placed on the traditional, but not official 7 division 1 win threshold.
A few more teams got eliminated this week, but overall this wasn’t a good weekend for the Flames’ playoff chances. The picture is still blurry, but it looks like there will just be too many seven win teams in leagues with more respect than the Big South. Liberty needs to win its last two games in impressive fashion to turn some heads.
Worst Results for Liberty:
Northern Arizona 52 – Eastern Washington 30
Northern Arizona beating Eastern Washington in impressive fashion puts them into really good shape with two games remaining. The Lumberjacks are in.
South Dakota State 25 – Illinois State 20
While Western Illinois and Indiana State were eliminated this week, South Dakota State has found themselves in the driver seat for an at-large bid. Their win over conference leading Illinois State was a red letter victory on a previously bubble-like resume.
UT Martin 42 – Eastern Kentucky 35
Tennessee-Martin moved into an at-large slot this week with their big win over Eastern Kentucky. If Eastern Kentucky and UT Martin both win out, the OVC will be a three bid league.
New Hampshire 30 – Richmond 25
What’s with these first place teams losing? New Hampshire jumps into the conversation with this win. Between New Hampshire, Towson, and Villanova all staying alive, it’s starting to look like the CAA could end up a four bid league by season’s end.
Western Carolina 48 – Furman 10
Western Carolina moves into the conversation with a dominant win over Furman. They aren’t in yet, but if they win out they will certainly have a good argument.
Best Results for Liberty:
North Dakota State 59 – Western Illinois 7
Western Illinois falls out of the playoff picture after being destroyed by the Bison. North Dakota State is starting to look like a contender again.
Incarnate Word 16 – SE Louisiana 2
SE Louisiana is eliminated. The Southland could still be a three bid league with Central Arkansas’ win though.
Liberty 21 – Presbyterian 13
The biggest win of the week for Liberty’s playoff hopes was their own. It wasn’t pretty, but no one has beaten Presby pretty this season. The Flames keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a tough road match up with Charleston Southern looming.
Conference Projections
Big Sky
Auto-Bid:
Southern Utah (7-2, 6-0)
At-Large:
Eastern Washington (6-3, 5-1)
Portland State (7-2, 4-2)
Northern Arizona (6-3, 4-2)
Bubble:
Montana (5-4, 4-2)
Still Alive:
North Dakota (5-4, 3-3)
Big South
Auto-Bid:
Charleston Southern (8-1, 5-0) – CLINCHED AUTO BID
At-Large:
Coastal Carolina (3-1, 8-1)
Still Alive:
Liberty (5-4, 2-2)
Colonial
Auto-Bid:
Richmond (7-2, 5-1)
At-Large:
James Madison (7-2, 4-2)
William & Mary (7-2, 5-1)
Bubble:
Towson (6-3, 4-2)
New Hampshire (5-4, 3-3)
Still Alive:
Villanova (5-4, 4-2)
Missouri Valley
Auto-Bid:
Illinois State (7-2, 5-1)
At-Large:
North Dakota State (7-2, 5-1)
South Dakota State (7-2, 4-2)
Northern Iowa (5-4, 3-3)
Bubble:
Youngstown State (5-4, 3-3)
Still Alive:
South Dakota (5-4, 3-3)
Northeast
Auto-Bid:
Duquesne (7-3, 4-1)
Still Alive:
Bryant (5-4, 3-1) *cannot get to 7 D-1 wins, but still alive for auto-bid
St. Francis (5-3, 3-1) *cannot get to 7 D-1 wins, but still alive for auto-bid
Ohio Valley
Auto-Bid:
Jacksonville State (8-1, 6-0)
At-Large:
Tennessee-Martin (5-3, 5-1)
Eastern Kentucky (5-4, 4-2)
Still Alive:
Eastern Illinois (5-4, 5-1)
Patriot
Auto-Bid:
Colgate (5-4, 4-0)
At-Large:
Fordham (8-2, 4-1)
Still Alive:
Lehigh (5-4, 3-1)
Pioneer
Auto-Bid:
Dayton (9-0, 6-0)
Still Alive:
Jacksonville (7-2, 4-2)
San Diego (7-2, 5-1)
Marist (5-4, 4-2)
Southern
Auto-Bid:
Citadel (7-2, 6-0)
At-Large:
Chattanooga (7-2, 5-1)
Bubble:
Western Carolina (6-3, 4-2)
Southland
Auto-Bid:
McNeese State (9-0, 8-0)
At-Large:
Sam Houston State (6-3, 5-2)
Bubble:
Central Arkansas (6-3, 6-1)
WHOA! Don\\\’t forget the Ivy League. I watched Penn beat Princeton at Franklin Field to go 5-3. If they beat Harvard and Cornell over the next two weeks they\\\’ll be eligible also. Penn put a spanking on Villanova
early in the year to prove they are worthy of an at large bid.
I retract my previous statement. The Ancient Eight (Ivy League) does not allow participation in the FCS playoff system.