Liberty (3-4 overall, 0-1 Big South) and Gardner-Webb (4-3, 0-1) renew their rivalry this weekend. The Flames have won 6 consecutive meetings between the Big South schools, and lead the overall series 10-8-1. Liberty was able to overcome a 28-10 2nd half deficit to win 42-35 in last year’s meeting. The victory was head coach Turner Gill’s first at Liberty.
Both teams are coming off losses to Coastal Carolina, and this game could determine who will finish 2nd in the conference.
Why Gardner-Webb can win this game
Kenny Cook is one of the best WRs in the Big South
Gardner-Webb has clearly been a better team at home than on the road. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are 3-0 at home this season under 1st year head coach Carroll McCray and just 1-3 on the road. This includes wins over Southern Conference opponent Furman, 28-21, and CAA member Richmond, 12-10. When at home, the Runnin’ Bulldogs are allowing just 12.67 points per game, but on the road they are giving up over 38 points per game. While on offense, Gardner-Webb is scoring over 31 points per game at home, but just 15 points per game on the road.
Coming off an open date and with Liberty’s possible emotional hangover from the gut-wrenching loss to Coastal, the odds are stacked in Gardner-Webb’s favor. GWU’s players, coaches, and fans should be amped up for this game. They haven’t beaten Liberty since 2006, and surely they feel they have a great shot in this one. Whereas the Flames’ season goal of making the playoffs are pretty much out the window.
Juanne Blount and Kenny Cook are playmakers. Blount, a junior running back, is averaging 100.7 yards per game which is 2nd only to Coastal’s Lorenzo Taliaferro in the Big South. Cook is #1 in the conference with 5.86 receptions per game, and 2nd in the conference (to Liberty’s Darrin Peterson) with 71.6 receiving yards per game. Blount and Cook will challenge Liberty’s defense.
Why Liberty can win this game
The Flames have won 6 consecutive games against Gardner-Webb dating back to 2007. Liberty has won the past 6 meetings by an average score of 38-15. The closest margin prior to last season’s 7 point game was a 20 point Liberty win in 2008, 30-10.
Des Rice ran for 170 yards and 3 tds against Coastal
Liberty has dominated everyone in the Big South, with the exception of Coastal Carolina, dating back to 2006. The Flames are 27-3 against all Big South opponents not named Coastal since 2006 including their 6-1 mark over Gardner-Webb during that timespan.
Des Rice has developed into the every down back the Flames need with Aldreakis Allen out. He set a career-high last time out with 170 rushing yards. He is now 4th in the conference with 81.6 rushing yards per game, a mark that is at 102.8 in his last 5 games. His improved running should allow Josh Woodrum and his receivers to have room to operate in the passing game.
Gardner-Webb ranks 2nd to last in the conference in scoring at 22.3 points per game. Liberty’s defense is the 2nd best in the conference allowing 22.1 points per game.
The Flames have scored at least 30 points in every game against Gardner-Webb since 2007.
X-Factor for this game
Liberty’s mindset.
Will Liberty’s players be able to get “up” for this game? Or will the emotional, heartbreaking loss to Coastal prove costly? With the loss to Coastal, Liberty’s goal of winning the conference championship and going to the playoffs have gone out the window. With the quick turnaround and having to bus 4-5 hours, will the players have enough turn-around time to prepare for Gardner-Webb especially considering the Runnin’ Bulldogs have had an extra week to prepare for the Flames? And don’t forget Liberty has beaten GWU 6 consecutive times. The Bulldogs have had this game circled on their schedule for some time, and don’t care if Liberty is having a “down” season. They want this win in the worst way.
Score Prediction
Liberty 31 Gardner-Webb 20
