As the college basketball season gets underway, it’s never too early to start talking about the NCAA Tournament. As the Flames seek their third straight bid to the Big Dance, we were able to talk to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi. Known as “Joey Brackets,” Lunardi has been predicting the tournament field for years, and shares his thoughts with ASOR on the Flames, how he makes his predictions, and college basketball as a whole.
You are known as ESPN’s “bracketologist.” How did the term “bracketology” originate and what is it?
Joe Lunardi: Well we did a little research on it and traced it back to the late 90s. I was interviewed by my hometown paper, the Philadelphia Inquirer, about the postseason prospects of some local teams: Temple, Villanova, ST Joes, that year and the writer said “what should I call you?” and I said just call me a bracketologist, and then that became bracketology.
What are the main factors you look for when predicting a team on the bubble will make the tournament?
JL: I think the main thing is, who did you play and who did you beat? When I’m sitting in a room what I want to know is, is the team I’m looking at competitive with the other teams that are already in? We prove that by asking who did they play during the year that are like the tournament teams and how did they do?
In 2008, you correctly predicted every team that got into the tournament. How do you think you were able to do that, and what’s the closest you’ve been to predicting every team since?
JL: “I think I got lucky, I did it again in 2013, and that was 68 teams. What I will say is, those teams at the end pretty much all look the same. Whoever I may have as team number 68, you may have as number 70, but it’s been a number of years since a team I wasn’t even looking at has made it. We’ve narrowed this down (the final spots) to 3 teams for 5 spots one year, or 3 teams for two spots another year, and at that point it’s just guessing.”
Since we are still in a pandemic, how do you see this year’s tournament playing out? Do you think the tournament will be cancelled, and if not do you think there will be a shortened field, or will things remain pretty much the same?
JL: I’m as certain as it’s possible to be about anything right now that there will be a tournament. When, where, and how many teams I think is still very much up in the air. I know what they want to do. They want to bring 68 teams to Indianapolis sometime in March and start playing games. They may have to move the tournament back, or shorten it with fewer teams, but I think everything’s on the table. I’m not saying that it can’t happen but the thought that it would happen in the normal way, like yeah, we had a World Series, but it wasn’t normal. We had a Stanley Cup and the NBA, but it wasn’t normal. We even have the NFL, but there’s cardboard people watching.
Do you see any Non Power 5 Conferences getting multiple bids? If so which ones?
JL: If you want to strictly limit the Power 5, of course there’s going to be multiple bids from the Big East, there’s going to be multiple teams from the American, the Atlantic 10, probably the West Coast Conference, and maybe the Missouri Valley. To go beyond that, like to the OVC or the Southern Conference, it just doesn’t happen very often because the committee is looking for those Quad 1 wins against other tournament teams. In addition to there not being many opportunities for the mid-majors, the big boys are now increasing the number of league games, and that’s squeezing out the little guys even more. They (P5 conferences) know that it’s helping their middle teams get more quad 1 wins.
Is there any chance the Flames could get an at-large bid with their most recent wins if they run the table, or will they have to win their conference to get in?
JL: The percentage of the bids to the little guys has gone way down. At this moment and time, I don’t have either South Carolina or Mississippi State in the field. South Carolina has a shot for an at-large, Mississippi State less so, but no I don’t think they will. It’s conceivable that Liberty will win every game in their league, lose to Lipscomb in their final, on a buzzer beater from halfcourt in seven overtimes and not make it. Some people in the room would go “That’s not fair, put them in,” while others would go “They had their chance, all they had to do was beat Lipscomb.” Both are reasonable arguments, I see both sides of it.
What are your thoughts on Liberty this season? Do you have them in your field?
JL: I do have them in my field, I think they are the best in their league. I really do think they’ll win it. However, all it takes is a good shooting day from some nobody, or a turned ankle with your best player in the conference quarterfinals for the whole thing to go a-wire, and the margin of error for the Liberty’s is vastly different than it is for an LSU.
