The Liberty Flames (8-2, 5-2 CUSA) take on the Sam Houston Bearkats (8-3, 5-2 CUSA) on Friday afternoon. The Flames and Bearkats are scheduled to meet at Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, Texas with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. Eastern in a game that will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
It all comes down to this. The last game of the regular season. Win and you’re in the conference championship game. Lose and you’re out.
That’s the scenario for the Flames. For the Bearkats, they are also alive for the CUSA Championship, but they need a little bit of help. Sam Houston must beat Liberty and also needs Jacksonville State to defeat Western Kentucky on Saturday to reach the championship game.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Sam Houston is in this situation. Under head coach KC Keeler, the Bearkats were one of the best FCS programs before making the move to the FBS a year ago. Sam Houston won 11 or more games for four straight years, three times making the FCS Semifinals from 2014-2017. After two down years, Keeler and the Bearkats returned to the top of the FCS, winning the FCS Championship in the Spring of 2021 and then going 11-1 in the Fall of 2021.
From there, Sam Houston readied itself for the move to the FBS. It took two seasons for them to make the adjustment, but you could see them starting to turn the corner last year. After starting the year 0-8, the Bearkats won 3 out of 4 to close the season and entered 2024 with lots of confidence. That confidence has translated to wins.
Sam Houston became bowl eligible for the first time with a win over FIU on Oct. 22. Now, they have their eyes set on a conference championship.
The Bearkats feature an offensive attack that is similar to that of Jacksonville State. While they don’t operate at the same tempo, Sam Houston likes to run the ball. A lot. And they use their quarterback in that rushing offense. Despite having only played in 9 games, quarterback Hunter Watson leads the team with 117 rushing attempts. He’s second on the team in rushing at 53.9 yards per game on the ground.
The Bearkats are the 25th best rushing offense in the country, third in the conference behind Liberty and Jacksonville State. Their passing offense ranks No. 125 in the country and are only ahead of New Mexico State in that statistic in CUSA.
In addition to his ability rushing the ball, Watson has also completed 118 of 193 passes for 1,299 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. The top running backs are Jay Ducker and DJ McKinney. Ducker has rushed 110 times for 571 yards and 7 touchdowns, while averaging 5.2 yards per rush. McKinney has 90 carries for 458 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 5.1 yards per rush.
There are several weapons at receiver Watson and the Bearkats use. Simeon Evans leads the way with 33 receptions for 375 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Noah Smith, Ife Adeyi, Qua’vez Humphreys, and Michael Phoenix have all had their opportunities this season as well. Smith is second on the team with 22 receptions while Humphreys has 362 receiving yards and a team-leading 4 touchdowns.
The Bearkats have struggled in the red zone with finishing drives. 55% of their red zone trips end in touchdowns, and they rank 125th in the country in red zone offense.
“I think where they’re so much better, is they went more to the quarterback run,” Lliberty head coach Jamey Chadwell said of the Bearkats offensive attack. “Their quarterback, who throws the ball well also, but they got a really nice running back, and then they complement with the quarterback running quite a bit. What that means, from a technical standpoint, they out number you. They might be spread out, and you have six in the box where they’re going to block with six, and the quarterback is free, so you have to change some schemes. He’s a very tough, physical guy. Our challenge on defense, in my opinion, is we’ve gotta, hopefully, try to make them one dimensional and force them to throw it more than they want to, and that’s hard to do, but that, to me, is the challenge of it. So, we gotta make sure that we do that, not give up any big plays. That’ll be the challenge to me. That’s gonna be the difference in the game, is who eliminates those mistakes and big plays.”
The Flames, who are making their first ever trip to Huntsville, Texas, will hope to achieve something only one other CUSA team has done – score 30 points against Sam Houston. Western Kentucky scored 31 in a win over the Bearkats earlier this season. Liberty is 19-0 under Chadwell when scoring 30 or more but only 2-3 when failing to reach that mark.
For a second straight season, Sam Houston boasts one of the top defensive units in the conference. They won games earlier this season, in back to back weeks, when only scoring 10 and 9 points against FIU and Louisiana Tech, respectively.
The Bearkats rank 2nd in total defense behind Louisiana Tech and 25th in the country. The Bearkats lead CUSA and rank 23rd nationally in holding opponents to 20.1 points per game. Their rushing defense ranks 53rd in the country while the passing defense checks in at 19th nationally.
“What they’ve done a fantastic job of is, is they don’t let people sustain drives on them,” Chadwell said. “You might be able to move the ball a little bit, but they don’t give up a lot of big plays. They make you keep snapping it, keep snapping, keep snapping it. Typically, when that happens, offenses mess up. They’ve done a really good job of that, of keeping people out of the end zone and make them earn everything. They’re very stout. Typically, most defenses, they might be really good in the box, might be really good in the secondary. They’re pretty good all the way through. I mean, there’s not necessarily a weak spot for them, and I think that’s what separates them maybe from other defenses, is that they’re good at every area, and they play really well off of each other. It’s gonna be a challenge for our guys up front. Our guys up front, our tight ends and everybody blocking. We’re gonna have to do probably the best blocking job for us to have a chance to control the line of scrimmage like we hope to.”
PREDICTION
Liberty 27, Sam Houston 21
Line: Liberty -2
Picks results this year:
Straight-up: 8-2
ATS: 7-3
