Liberty at Western Kentucky.
It’s a game that has been circled on the Conference USA calendar since the schedule came out for the new look league.
Nearly everyone picked the Hilltoppers as the preseason favorite while many pegged the Flames to be their top competition.
While other league newcomers Jacksonville State and New Mexico State have made a case to be included in the conference title race, it is Liberty who currently sits alone atop the conference standings as the calendar turns to late October. The Flames are not only the only remaining unbeaten team in CUSA play, Liberty also remains unbeaten overall. Perhaps Liberty’s toughest remaining test on the road to an undefeated season is Tuesday night in Bowling Green.
Liberty (7-0, 5-0 CUSA) will play in their final midweek game of the regular season as they take on WKU (4-3, 2-1) on Tuesday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern and will be televised on ESPNU.
The Hilltoppers are led by 5th year head coach Tyson Helton who is 36-24 overall in his first head coaching job, leading them to a bowl game in every year. Western Kentucky has finished first or second in the CUSA regular season standings in three of Helton’s first four seasons as head coach while also winning 9 games in those three seasons.
So far this season, WKU has defeated South Florida (41-24), Houston Christian (52-22), Middle Tennessee (31-10), and Louisiana Tech (35-28). Their losses have come against Ohio State (63-10), Troy (27-24), and last week at Jacksonville State (20-17).
Despite that loss to the Gamecocks, Tuesday’s game will go a long way in determining who will compete in the CUSA championship game. With the first place team getting to play at home, having the head to head tiebreaker between these two teams could very well loom large as we get closer to November.
Perhaps the best passing quarterback in the conference, Austin Reed has seen tremendous success during his time at Western Kentucky. The 2023 CUSA Preseason Offensive Player of the Year, Reed was the leading passer in all of college football in 2022 with 4,746 yards. He also tossed 40 touchdowns while rushing for an additional eight.
This year, Reed has completed 59.2% of his 294 passes for 1,915 yards, 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He also has 26 rushing attempts for 89 yards and three scores.
Liberty has struggled in pressuring opposing quarterbacks this season. Being able to complicate things for Reed and shortening his time in the pocket will be important.
“They get the ball out quick,” Chadwell said of Reed and the WKU offense. “He is very accurate. When you get it out quick and you are accurate, you don’t have a lot of room for error. We’ve got to find ways to pressure him and knock the receivers off their routes, off their timing, so we can get some pressure on him and force him into maybe making some bad decisions. If he has time to throw, he’s going to put it where he’s supposed to be. He’s been able to do that. It’s a big challenge for us and our secondary because of the skill they have.”
Reed’s favorite target is Malachi Corley. The junior receiver was a first team all conference performer a season ago after finishing the year with 101 receptions for 1,295 yards and 11 touchdowns. In 6 games this season, Corley has 43 catches for 585 yards and 5 scores.
The Helson coached offense heavily relies on the passing game. WKU has attempted 301 passes this season compared to just 174 rushing attempts. That has resulted in 282.4 passing yards per game this season compared to 100.3 yards gained on the ground.
The Hilltoppers have the ability to score points in bunches and rack up the yardage through the air. The Flames struggled through much of the game last week against Middle Tennessee and their passing attack. Coach Chadwell hopes his team’s defense from the fourth quarter shows up for the full game in Bowling Green on Tuesday night.
“I’ve got confidence in our defense,” he said. “I think we’ve got to do a better job of coming out of the gate and playing well. If you look from halfway of the third quarter on, we shut (MTSU) down. We’ve put them in a couple of bad positions in turning the ball over. I think if you ask our defensive guys they will say we didn’t prepare the way we needed to to play our best. I think those guys understand that. We are playing great receivers and the quarterback is the Preseason Player of the Year and all of those things. They’re good. They’re going to make plays. They’ve got a good offense. They’re going to make plays. I expect us to play better. I hope it’s not a high scoring game out there. I hope we score a lot and they score a little, that’s what I hope it is.”
Western Kentucky’s rushing defense will be tested in this matchup. They rank 125th (out of 130 teams) in the country in rushing defense, allowing 203.7 yards per game. The Flames are 2nd in the country with 274.6 yards rushing per game, having rushed for a season-best 401 yards in last week’s win over Middle Tennessee.
PREDICTION
Liberty 31, Western Kentucky 24
Line: Liberty -5
Picks results this year:
Straight-up: 7-0
ATS: 3-4
