Liberty plays Western Kentucky in a Conference USA game on Tuesday, October 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. from Bowling Green, Kentucky and will be televised on ESPNU.
To help us get prepared for the game against the Hilltoppers, we are pleased to have The Towel Rack provide some insight on this year’s Western Kentucky team.
ASOR: What is the overall feeling surrounding this season within the program thus far coming into the season and after these past games?
The Towel Rack: I can’t remember a more optimistic outlook on an upcoming WKU season than the outlook coming into this year. The Hilltoppers returned quarterback Austin Reed, who led the nation in passing last year, and their top receiver in Malachi Corley as well as retained Tyson Helton for another year, with there being some trepidation that’d take a bigger job. Put all that together, there were expectations of an 11-win season, challenge for a top 25 ranking and cruise to a CUSA title game.
That optimism has come crashing back to earth: The Tops are coming off their first conference loss (to a freshly FBS program in Jacksonville State) and there are significant questions about the offense with the team having scored just 8 second half points in the last three games. Needless to say, the vibes are bad right now. But hey, at least we’ll be wearing some dope helmets on Tuesday.
ASOR: What has been your feeling/evaluation of Austin Reed going into the season and what is the expectation for his production in this game/the rest of the season?
The Towel Rack: In a word: Underwhelming. Reed has only thrown for 1,915 yards to this point in the season (compared to the 2,316 he threw for during the first 7 games of last year) and the 250 yards he threw for against Jacksonville State last week marked the third fewest of his Hilltopper career.
To be charitable, Reed has had a couple of things put him behind the 8-ball this season: A new offensive coordinator from last year and has had a plethora of wide receiver injuries (Corley suffered an early-season injury, as did the expected No. 2 WR Michael Mathison, who suffered his injury in camp and has yet to see the field), but over the last few weeks it’s been clear that something isn’t quite right.
As for what to expect moving forward, including Tuesday against the Flames: I think we’re officially in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” portion of the season. He has not thrown for 300 yards since the season opener against South Florida (though he came close against MTSU and La Tech) and the offense looks out of sorts, so I don’t know why we’d expect a switch to flip. Any time soon.
ASOR: Who do you consider to be the biggest X factor on the Western Kentucky offense besides the quarterback? How about for the defense?
The Towel Rack: We already mentioned his name above, but the Tops’ biggest X-Factor on offense is Malachi Corley. “The YAC King” as he’s known around Southcentral Kentucky, Corley has garnered comparisons from NFL Draft watchers to Debo Samuel – he’s something of a gadget receiver, where he’s more dangerous with the ball in his hands than without it.
As for the defense, two of the biggest X-Factors – Linebacker JaQues Evans and cornerback Upton Stout – are out after undergoing surgery. That leaves Kendrick Simpkins as my choice for WKU’s biggest name to watch on defense: He’s second on the team in total tackles and leads the team with three forced fumbles.
ASOR: What do you expect the ending record for this team to look like and what would make for a successful season?
The Towel Rack: While the vibes are bad, as previously established, there’s still a lot to play for: Winning out would not only put the Tops at 9 regular season wins, but also put them in the CUSA title game. So while the preseason expectations have been all but shattered, the season isn’t a total loss. At least, not yet.
However, I’m not feeling great about the Liberty matchup and think WKU will miss out on the title game, leading them to need to find their 9th win in the bowl game (something that has become a staple of the Tyson Helton era).
ASOR: What player has broken out this year or do you think has a good chance to?
The Towel Rack: The aforementioned Simpkins has been the biggest revelation on the defensive side of the ball for the Tops this year.
Offensively, Easton Messer is on the cusp of a truly breakout season. Second on the team in receptions and touchdowns, Messer got elevated to WR2 status in the wake of injuries to Corley, Mathison and Dalvin Smith (a guy who could have been in this conversation if not for also having suffered an injury early this year).
ASOR: Where do you think the Flames will struggle the most against this team?
The Towel Rack: Despite the injuries to two of their most important pieces, the WKU defense has been quite stout (putting aside almost blowing a 28 point lead at La Tech). Watch for WKU’s third level to be the difference maker in the game.
ASOR: What is your final score prediction for this game?
The Towel Rack: WKU and Liberty seem to be going in total opposite trajectories at the moment. While the Hilltoppers have struggled to close out games in recent weeks, that seems to be where the Flames have thrived, especially in their wins against Sam Houston and MTSU.
If the Tops get out to a fast enough start, they might be able to hold Liberty’s eventual second-half comeback run off, but I don’t foresee that happening.
As much as I’d like to see the Tops turn things around, I don’t think it’ll happen this week. I’ll take the Flames, in the 38-17 realm, to move to 8-0 and put the Tops’ CUSA title game hopes on life support.
