It’s never too early to set some expectations.

Liberty football finished 13-1 last year, riding a 13-0 start, winning the CUSA title, advancing to the Fiesta Bowl, and securing a third top 25 ranking in four seasons. The Flames are now looking to achieve a sixth straight bowl game and compete for a second straight conference championship while also keeping its eyes on the College Football Playoff.

With football’s return on the horizon, it’s time to look ahead and release our way-too-early projections for the upcoming season.

I rank each matchup with the following labels: Solid Win, Lean Win, Toss-Up, Lean Loss, and Solid Loss.

Coming off the success from last year with several key pieces returning and the Flames expected to be favored in at least 11 of 12 games this season, many might be counting on another undefeated campaign. That is an incredibly difficult feat to accomplish, and perhaps head coach Jamey Chadwell set the bar too high in his first season on the Mountain.

Note: SP+ offensive and defensive rankings courtesy of ESPN. All over/under win totals courtesy of DraftKings. For context, Liberty ranks 21st in offensive SP and 74th in defensive SP for the upcoming season and has an O/U of 10.5 wins.

Aug. 31: Home vs Campbell (Off. SP: N/A, Def. SP: N/A, O/U N/A)

Solid Win: As long as Liberty comes out focused and read to play football to open the season in week 1, this should be a comfortable win for the Flames to open up the 2024 campaign.

Sept. 7: Road at New Mexico State (Off. SP: 90th, Def. SP: 96th, O/U 4.5)

Lean Win: Yes, this is a much different team from last year’s NMSU squad that pushed Liberty to the brink in the CUSA championship game, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have some talent. You know the Aggies have this game circled on their calendar all summer as they look to get a marquee early season win to open the Tony Sanchez era in style.

Sept. 14: Home vs UTEP (Off. SP: 127th, Def. SP: 99th, O/U 4)

Solid Win: UTEP should improve under first year head coach Scotty Walden over the next couple of seasons and also as the 2024 year progresses, but expecting them to come into Williams Stadium in Week 3 and spring an upset of this magnitude is not very likely.

Sept. 21: Home vs East Carolina (Off. SP: 105th, Def. SP: 73rd, O/U 6)

Lean Win: East Carolina was only 2-10 last season, but look at that over/under win total of 6. Vegas, like many others, expect the Pirates to figure some things out this season. This could end up being the most talented team that comes to Williams Stadium in 2024 and it won’t be an easy win for the Flames.

Sept. 28: Road at Appalachian State (Off. SP: 25th, Def. SP: 88th, O/U 8)

Toss-up: This is the non-conference game we are looking forward to and understandably so. Liberty vs Appalachian State is sure to be one of the can’t miss Group of Five games this season as both the Flames and Mountaineers are favorites in their respective conferences. Could it even be a CFP elimination game? Having to play in Boone will be an incredibly difficult challenge for the Flames. It should be a great atmosphere and great game.

Oct. 8: Home vs FIU (Off. SP: 107th, Def. SP: 129th, O/U 4.5)

Solid Win: FIU has struggled to find consistency in recent years, but the Panthers have some optimism under third year head coach Mike MacIntyre and sophomore quarterback Keyone Jenkins. Liberty will enter this game with a few extra days of rest and should be ready to focus on defending its conference title with the first of four straight league games.

Oct. 23: Road at Kennesaw State (Off. SP: 120th, Def. SP: 114th, O/U 2.5)

Solid Win: Liberty will get every team’s best shot in CUSA (and even in non-conference) as the defending champs. Newcomer Kennesaw State is no stranger to the Flames, but a lot has changed since these two last met as Big South foes. This could be a trap game for LU with a big clash against Jacksonville State waiting, but, with an extra week to prepare hopefully Coach Chadwell and staff have them focused on the task at hand.

Oct. 30: Home vs Jacksonville State (Off. SP: 86th, Def. SP: 54th, O/U 8)

Lean Win: The Flames and Gamecocks will meet in late October and the game will likely have plenty at stake in terms of the CUSA championship race. Under Coach Rich Rodriguez, Jax State should once again compete near the top of the conference standings, and they would like nothing better than to steal a win on the road against the defending conference champs.

Nov. 9: Road at Middle Tennessee (Off. SP: 93rd, Def. SP: 113th, O/U 5)

Solid Win: The Blue Raiders will be under first year head coach Derek Mason and have one of CUSA’s better quarterbacks in Nick Vattiato. They could be a dangerous team, but the Flames will be solid favorites.

Nov. 16: Road at UMass (Off. SP: 103rd, Def. SP: 119th, O/U 3.5)

Solid Win: Liberty has dominated the series against UMass the past several years, and the Flames should be able to easily dispatch the Minutemen in what is expected to be the last meeting between the two former FBS Independents for some time. UMass has seen slow and steady improvement under Don Brown, but there should still be a sizable gap between them ad Liberty.

Nov. 23: Home vs Western Kentucky (Off. SP: 59th, Def. SP: 85th, O/U 7)

Lean Win: Liberty’s regular season home finale could have a lot riding on it as Western Kentucky comes to Lynchburg. The Flames took care of the Hilltoppers on the road last year, but WKU will look to pull the upset as they attempt to get back to the CUSA title game.

Nov. 29: Road at Sam Houston (Off. SP: 119th, Def. SP: 76th, O/U 4.5)

Lean Win: Sam Houston was on the wrong end of some close margins last year before they rebounded in the final month of the season to win a few. Entering their 2nd season in the FBS and Conference USA, the Bearkats could be fighting for their first ever bowl appearance in the regular season finale.

Final updated predictions:

  • best-case scenario: 12-0, realistic record: 11-1, wouldn’t be shocked: 10-2

How realistic are these predictions? What are your predictions?