The Liberty Flames evened their record at 2-2 thanks to a road upset against New Mexico, 52-43, in a wild game.
WHAT IT MEANS
The Flames jumped out to a big lead, 42-10, at the halftime break, but it was all they could do to hold on in the final minutes. The weather and altitude seemed to play a factor in the 2nd half, with several Liberty players missing time. Most notably, Buckshot Calvert missed a couple of series in the 2nd half due to cramps. In the end, the Flames were able to make enough plays when needed to grab a huge win, the program’s first ever road win as an FBS program.
Antonio Gandy-Golden was just ridiculous, finishing with a program record 245 receiving yards. Coach Gill said after the Old Dominion game that he likes AGG’s matchup against anyone. Well, that was certainly the case in this one as Buckshot continued to target his top receiver, and AGG rewarded him.
After a terrific first half where the defense only allowed 7 points on the opening drive and 3 points after a turnover and short field, the Flames’ surrendered 33 points and 385 yards in the 2nd half. While the final stats don’t look pretty, it was enough to hang on to the win. Certainly defensive coordinator Robert Wimberly will, again, emphasize the importance of a complete 60 minute game, but he will be happy with the 4 takeaways his unit created.
Through 4 games against FBS competition, all G5 opponents, Liberty has won two games and lost two. The two wins were against lower level G5 teams while the two losses were against very good G5 squads. North Texas and Army have solid programs, coming off bowl games. Both are well on their way to another bowl game invite. While the final score of those games leave much to be desired, at the end of the season we will all look back and realize just how good those two teams were.
LOOKING AHEAD
The Flames returned to Lynchburg in the early hours of Sunday morning, will be in Lynchburg throughout the week, and head back out west to New Mexico on Friday to face the Aggies of New Mexico State. Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm eastern time in Las Cruces.
The Aggies are 1-4 on the season and are coming off a bye week. Just like last week against New Mexico, this weekend’s game will be homecoming for NMSU. New Mexico State picked up their first win of the season just prior to their open date, as they knocked off UTEP, 27-20. They lost to New Mexico, 42-25, and also have losses to Wyoming, Minnesota, and Utah State.
As has been well documented, the Aggies and Flames will play each other twice this year and next as the two Independent schools had difficulty finding enough home dates to fill an FBS schedule. New Mexico State will make the return trip to Lynchburg on November 24th.
NMSU is currently ranked 118 according to ESPN’s FPI, where the Flames are 114. Liberty has a 62% chance to win the game according to this metric, and the Flames are currently favored by 4. This marks the first time this season Liberty has been favored in a game and the first time the Flames have ever been favored against an FBS team.
Not to put the cart before the horse, but with Liberty’s two wins over FBS opponents already this season, we need to keep an eye on the Flames’ bowl game chances. LU should be favored in both games against NMSU, as well as the two FCS games. The UMass game will be a toss-up. This puts Liberty right on target, through the first 4 games of the season, to be competing for bowl eligibility the last month of the year.
BY THE NUMBERS
568 & 580 | Both offenses put up a ton of points and yards. The Flames finished with 568 yards of total offense compared to the Lobos’ 580.
245 | As mentioned, AGG had a school record 245 receiving yards. If eligible, Gandy-Golden would currently rank 22nd in receiving yards per game in the country at 95.5.
4 | Liberty intercepted 4 passes against New Mexico.
My wife and son thought I was crazy for predicting a seven-win season, but my prediction has panned out thus far. I agree that the UMass game will be the toss-up, but if we can become more consistent in our play, we could have a very positive start to our FBS tenure.