Liberty plays Middle Tennessee in a Conference USA game on Tuesday, October 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia and will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
To help us get prepared for the game against the Blue Raiders, we are pleased to have Sam Doughton provide some insight on this year’s Middle Tennessee team. Doughton is a staff writer for Middle Tennessee Athletics.
ASOR: What is the overall feeling surrounding this season within the program thus far coming into the season and after these past games?
Sam Doughton: I think coming into 2023, there was an expectation for MTSU to build on the momentum of back-to-back bowl winning seasons in 2021 and 2022. While the non conference slate was tough with two SEC games, a new look CUSA gave MTSU opportunity heading into the back half of the year. The expectation wasn’t necessarily championship or bust, but the Blue Raiders needed to be in that CUSA championship picture late into the season for most folks to feel the season was successful.
Obviously, that’s not how 2023 has gone for the Blue Raiders. While not technically out of the CUSA title race at this very moment, the Blue Raiders have played themselves into a position where they must win-out to have even a chance of making the title game. Safe to say that no one around the program is satisfied with the team’s 2-5 record heading into their final midweek game of the CUSA schedule.
ASOR: What has been your feeling/evaluation of Nicholas Vattiato going into the season and what is the expectation for his production in this game/the rest of the season?
SD: After redshirting during the 2022 season, Vattiato came into the 2023 season with significantly more starting experience than most redshirt sophomores around the country, having won the Bahamas Bowl MVP in 2021 as a freshman after being forced into duty late in the season as one of just two scholarship QBs that were active due to injuries. He had some competition in the spring and fall for the job, both from younger guys already in the QB room (DJ Riles and Kyle Lowe) and from a JuCo transfer addition (Ren Hefley), but pretty quickly established himself as the starter fairly early.
All in all so far in 2023, Vattiato has proven himself to be a savvy, gutsy quarterback that, like all QBs, is significantly more effective when he has time to throw. He runs Mitch Stewart’s air raid scheme well and has good accuracy on the short throws the offense makes its bread and butter. He’s even been able to work some running ability into his game, mostly on designed QB draws. And he’s not afraid to take, and make, a shot downfield if the right look is there.
He’s a guy MTSU can continue to build around on the offensive side of the ball, and has kept MTSU in the games’ its been in with the help of some talented skill guys around him on offense.
ASOR: Who do you consider to be the biggest X factor on the Middle Tennessee offense besides the quarterback? How about for the defense?
SD: Offensively, rather than any one individual, I think the X factor to the offense’s success is its play on the offensive line. If that unit performs like they did against LA Tech, both in giving Vattiato time to hit the occasional receiver down field as well as opening up some running lanes for MTSU’s backs, the Blue Raiders will be successful enough to have a chance in every game. When they don’t perform well, MTSU has not had enough in the tank elsewhere to overcome that deficit so far this season.
Defensively, MTSU’s defense has tended to get a spark whenever they grab a turnover, particularly in the secondary, spring boarding them into usually a couple possessions in a row of solid play. Safety Tra Fluellen picked up his second of the season last week against LA Tech after playing just one half due to a targeting suspension. Having him for a full game will be a big boost to the Blue Raider secondary.
ASOR: What do you expect the ending record for this team to look like and what would make for a successful season?
SD: It’s tough to project. To spoil my score prediction below, I do think the Blue Raiders will drop this game to Liberty, meaning MTSU will need to win out just to become bowl eligible. It’s certainly possible, as I don’t think MTSU will be a heavy underdog in any game in November and likely an outright favorite in every game but at NMSU. But I think all four games are closer to coin flips than sure things.
Going with the odds, I think something like 5-7 is the most likely outcome of the season for MTSU, likely winning their two remaining home games and then splitting the two November road games. Though 6-6 or 7-5 is in reach with a little help.
But to consider the back half of the season successful, the Blue Raiders will have to at least make a bowl game by winning four of their last five contests. And to make the overall season a success? For better or for worse, I think only winning out the rest of the way, including an upset win over Liberty, would alleviate some of the pressure from the early season losses to Colorado State, Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State.
ASOR: What player has broken out this year or do you think has a good chance to?
SD: Elijah Metcalf has impressed many folks around Murfreesboro since taking over at the team’s first choice slot receiver this offseason. He leads the team with 35 catches and four touchdowns on the year. Defensively, Sam Brumfield has been a key JuCo pickup at middle linebacker, particularly as injuries have hobbled some of his peers in that room. He leads all Blue Raiders with 54 total tackles, including 5.5 tackles for loss this season.
ASOR: Where do you think the Flames will struggle the most against this team?
SD: Struggle probably isn’t the word I’d use, but I think MTSU’s rushing defense will be up to the task of slowing down Liberty from their 5.5 yards per attempt average this season. When MTSU has been successful under defensive coordinator Scott Shafer, it’s come from really strong run fit setting up third-and-longs for opposing offenses. The Flames will still get theirs occasionally in the run game, as any option offense will do, but I think the improvements MTSU has made in their run defense since the start of CUSA play will keep the Blue Raiders in the game longer than many Flames fans might like on Tuesday.
ASOR: What is your final score prediction for this game?
SD: I’m never great at these score predictions, but I expect Tuesday night might be closer than most will likely predict. That being said, the Blue Raiders need to show me more than they have so far this season for me to take them in an upset on the road.
Give me a game that’s close until the fourth quarter or so thanks to MTSU’s blitz heavy defense, when Salter will break a big play with his arm to put things out of reach for the Flames, with a final of something like 27-17, Liberty.
