Liberty (1-0) and New Mexico State (1-1) will meet Saturday at 6:00 p.m. as both teams play their first Conference USA game. Kickoff from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia will be televised on ESPN+.

It wasn’t that long ago when these two, former FBS Independents, met at the same location. Liberty’s 2022 regular season finale on Nov. 26 was a disastrous, 49-14, loss to the New Mexico State Aggies. Of course, there were many factors that played into that score, most notably from Liberty’s side was the news breaking just hours before kickoff of Hugh Freeze being heavily involved for the Auburn head coaching job.

“They know we got embarrassed obviously last year, as you watch the video and for whatever reason it happened,” said Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell. “There’s no need for us to bring it up. Our focus is on this group and this team and what we have to control. We know they are really good. You know, based off last year, they’re not coming in here intimidated. They are not going to care. They came in here and smacked us.”

The Flames and Aggies met four times during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, playing the very unconventional in-season home and home series. NMSU won the first meeting before Liberty won three straight. The two teams did not meet during the 2021 or 2022 seasons before the 5th matchup in the series history last year. Now, both Liberty and New Mexico State are conference rivals as two of the newest members of Conference USA.

Last season, Jerry Kill took over as the Aggies’ head coach after a stint at Minnesota where he was 29-29 in five seasons and went to three bowl games. Kill and NMSU went 7-6 in 2022, advancing to a bowl game where they defeated Bowling Green.

So far this year, New Mexico State is 1-1. They began the season in Week 0 with a 41-30 loss at home to UMass. This past week, the Aggies defeated FCS member Western Illinois, 58-21.

Diego Pavia is back at quarterback and he burst onto the scene in the win over Liberty last November. He accounted for six touchdowns, passing for three and running for three more, in the win over the Flames. He was 16 of 21 passing for 214 yards while also picking up 125 rushing yards on 20 carries. So far this year, Pavia is 32 of 47 passing for 565 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He has 17 rushes to his tally but only 12 yards.

“He’s the catalyst,” Chadwell said of Pavia. “He’s really good. He takes care of it. He’s like a magician, he gets out of some things that are amazing. We are going to have to be really detailed with this one in our assignments, and then we have to get him down because that’s where he really hurts you.”

Kill and the Aggies have played a second quarterback at times so far through the first two games. Former Texas A&M quarterback Eli Stowers has seen playing time in both games. He has been more of a rushing threat when he enters the game, having rushed 8 times for 33 yards and a touchdown. Stowers attempted two passes this past week against Western Illinois, completing one of them for a 63-yard touchdown.

At receiver, Pavia has had two primary targets early in the season. Jonathan Brady has 6 receptions for 150 yards and a score while Trent Hudson also has 6 catches that have gone for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Star Thomas leads the Aggies’ backfield, having rushed 10 times for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also has 5 receptions for 52 yards. Jamani Jones has rushed 15 times for 71 yards.

“We will get a lot of different looks,” Chadwell said of the New Mexico State defense. “They blitz a lot, they bring a lot of pressure. It’s hard to lock in on what they want to try to do all the time. Certain times on certain defenses, you think they are going to line up like this. They do a lot of different things and bring a lot of different blitzes from everywhere. To make sure you are in a good play or a play that’s not going to put you at a lot of risk against them. That’s where they’ve done a good job and they’ve been able to play pretty good defense.”

PREDICTION

Liberty 35, New Mexico State 24

Line: Liberty -10

Picks results this year:
Straight-up: 1-0
ATS: 1-0