Out to a 10-0 start this season, Liberty and first year head coach Jamey Chadwell are in serious contention for a New Year’s Six bowl invite.
The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion gets an automatic bid to one of those coveted bowl spots, and Liberty is one of a handful of teams in serious consideration. How do the Flames compare to those other teams? We break down everyone’s resume, comparing them to Liberty’s, and detailing what Liberty must do to surpass them.
Let’s start with the Flames’ resume.
Liberty
Record: 10-0, 7-0
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: 25/N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Western Kentucky (#87 FPI)
Losses: N/A
Wins against teams with winning record: 3 (Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State)
FPI: 47
SOR: 16
SOS: 133
Sagarin: 48
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs UMass (94.1%), @ UTEP (86.6%), vs New Mexico State (86.5%)
AMERICAN
Tulane
Record: 9-1, 6-0
CFP Ranking: 24
AP/Coaches Ranking: 17/17
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Memphis (#55 FPI)
Losses: #20 Ole Miss (37-20)
Wins against teams with winning record: 1 (Memphis)
FPI: 54
SOR: 20
SOS: 109
Sagarin: 58
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ FAU (66.0%), vs UTSA (58.1%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
No, Tulane is already ranked ahead of the Flames in the CFP rankings. If they win out, they will stay ahead of Liberty.
SMU
Record: 8-2, 6-0
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Rice (#84 FPI)
Losses: #18 Oklahoma (28-11), TCU (34-17)
Wins against teams with winning record: 0
FPI: 22
SOR: 34
SOS: 80
Sagarin: 32
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ Memphis (74.3%), vs Navy (96.6%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
SMU would be an interesting case. They have strong computer numbers, but haven’t really beaten anybody. If they win out, the Mustangs would add a nice win over Memphis and a conference championship win over a good team like Tulane. It would probably be enough to push them ahead of Liberty.
Memphis
Record: 8-2, 5-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Boise State (#56 FPI)
Losses: Missouri (34-27), Tulane (31-21)
Wins against teams with winning record: 0
FPI: 55
SOR: 44
SOS: 113
Sagarin: 72
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs SMU (25.7%), @ Temple (89.0%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Currently, Liberty should be ahead of Memphis. With two losses and really no good wins, it makes a tough sell for the Tigers. However, wins over SMU and, let’s say, Tulane in the conference championship game, and suddenly they have a compelling case. Would that be enough to overtake an undefeated Liberty? It would be close.
Others
UTSA is currently unbeaten in conference play but they already have three losses and would be very unlikely to pass Liberty for the New Year’s Six spot. The Flames are big UTSA fans the rest of the way. They play Tulane next week. A win there would solidify their spot in the AAC title game where they could knock out either SMU or Memphis.
The AAC is the biggest hurdle to Liberty’s NY6 path. The Flames need a UTSA to win the league title or have the other three top teams lose at least one more game to feel comfortable.
Mid-American
Toledo
Record: 10-1, 7-0
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: San Jose State (#63 FPI)
Losses: Illinois (30-28)
Wins against teams with winning record: 2 (Miami OH, Bowling Green)
FPI: 58
SOR: 32
SOS: 130
Sagarin: 56
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ Central Michigan (80.0%), vs TBD in MAC Championship
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, it would make sense for Liberty to end up ranked higher than a 1-loss MAC champion. Still, if they win out, the Rockets would have a case to be ahead of the Flames. Liberty nearly got a big boost on Tuesday night before the Rockets came from behind to beat Bowling Green. A win by the Falcons would have not only helped the Flames’ strength of schedule but also knock Toledo out of contention for that NY6 spot.
Miami (OH)
Record: 8-2, 5-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: Cincinnati (31-24)
Best non-P5 win: Ohio (#86 FPI)
Losses: Miami FL (38-3), Toledo (21-17)
Wins against teams with winning record: 2 (Bowling Green, Ohio)
FPI: 75
SOR: 39
SOS: 108
Sagarin: 84
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs Buffalo (83.9%), @ Ball State (77.0%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, Liberty should be ahead of a 2-loss Miami Ohio even if they win out.
Mountain West
Air Force
Record: 8-2, 4-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: San Jose State (#63 FPI)
Losses: Army (23-3), Hawaii (27-13)
Wins against teams with winning record: 1 (Wyoming)
FPI: 70
SOR: 48
SOS: 131
Sagarin: 61
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs UNLV (58.2%), @ Boise State (38.3%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, with losses the last two weeks against Army and Hawaii, Liberty should be firmly ahead of Air Force.
UNLV
Record: 8-2, 5-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: Vanderbilt (40-37)
Best non-P5 win: Wyoming (#92 FPI)
Losses: #2 Michigan (35-7), Fresno State (31-24)
Wins against teams with winning record: 1 (Wyoming)
FPI: 71
SOR: 42
SOS: 67
Sagarin: 70
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ Air Force (41.8%), vs San Jose State (54.5%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, Liberty should be ranked ahead of UNLV if they win out, but another loss would cement this case.
Fresno State
Record: 8-2, 4-2
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: Purdue (39-35), Arizona State (29-0)
Best non-P5 win: Boise State (#56 FPI)
Losses: Wyoming (24-18), San Jose State (42-18)
Wins against teams with winning record: 1 (UNLV)
FPI: 68
SOR: 40
SOS: 117
Sagarin: 63
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs New Mexico (90.7%), @ San Diego State (76.9%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, even despite the two P5 wins over struggling teams this season, Liberty should be ahead of Fresno State after their 42-18 loss to San Jose State.
Others
Boise State and San Jose State are still in the mix for the conference championship race. With 5 losses each, if either wins the title, this would easily put the Flames ahead of them in the pecking order for the NY6.
Sun Belt
Troy
Record: 8-2, 5-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: South Alabama (#69 FPI)
Losses: #15 Kansas State (42-13), James Madison (16-14)
Wins against teams with winning record: 2 (Georgia State, Texas State)
FPI: 45
SOR: 36
SOS: 87
Sagarin: 44
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs Louisiana (83.6%), @ Southern Miss (88.0%), vs TBD in championship game
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, Liberty should be ahead, but Troy is very close to the Flames in overall resume. Their two losses are very respectable, but they probably don’t have enough quality wins to overcome those losses against an unbeaten Liberty team.
