Out to an 11-0 start this season, Liberty and first year head coach Jamey Chadwell are in serious contention for a New Year’s Six bowl invite.
Those aspirations got a nice jolt on Tuesday night when the Flames slide into the College Football Playoff Top 25 Ranking at No. 25. The Flames are now the second highest ranked Group of Five team behind Tulane who is No. 23.
The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion gets an automatic bid to one of those coveted bowl spots, and Liberty is one of a handful of teams in serious consideration. How do the Flames compare to those other teams? We break down everyone’s resume, comparing them to Liberty’s, and detailing what Liberty must do to surpass them.
Let’s start with the Flames’ resume.
Liberty
Record: 11-0, 7-0
CFP Ranking: 25
AP/Coaches Ranking: 22/22
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Jacksonville State (#82 FPI)
Losses: N/A
Wins against teams with winning record: 4 (Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky)
FPI: 46
SOR: 15
SOS: 133
Sagarin: 53
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ UTEP (85.9%), vs New Mexico State (82.7%)
AMERICAN
Tulane
Record: 10-1, 7-0
CFP Ranking: 23
AP/Coaches Ranking: 18/18
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Memphis (#56 FPI)
Losses: #20 Ole Miss (37-20)
Wins against teams with winning record: 1 (Memphis)
FPI: 50
SOR: 18
SOS: 111
Sagarin: 52
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs UTSA (59.4%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
No, Tulane is already ranked ahead of the Flames in the CFP rankings. If they win out, they will stay ahead of Liberty.
SMU
Record: 9-2, 7-0
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A/25
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Memphis (#56 FPI)
Losses: #18 Oklahoma (28-11), TCU (34-17)
Wins against teams with winning record: 1 (Memphis)
FPI: 22
SOR: 25
SOS: 80
Sagarin: 32
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs Navy (96.1%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
SMU would be an interesting case. They have strong computer numbers, but haven’t really beaten anybody. They did pick up a nice win over Memphis this past week. If they win out, the Mustangs would add a nice win in the conference championship over either Tulane or UTSA. It could be enough to push them ahead of Liberty, but the Flames would have an argument.
Others
With Memphis’ lost to SMU this past week, the Tigers dropped a third game and are eliminated from the AAC championship race.
UTSA is currently unbeaten in conference play but they already have three losses and would be very unlikely to pass Liberty for the New Year’s Six spot. The Flames are big UTSA fans the rest of the way. They play Tulane on Friday – must watch game for Liberty fans. A win there would solidify their spot in the AAC title game where they could knock out SMU.
The AAC is the biggest hurdle to Liberty’s NY6 path. The Flames need UTSA to win the league title to feel really good about their chances.
Mid-American
Toledo
Record: 10-1, 7-0
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: 23/N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: San Jose State (#68 FPI)
Losses: Illinois (30-28)
Wins against teams with winning record: 2 (Miami OH, Bowling Green)
FPI: 59
SOR: 27
SOS: 131
Sagarin: 59
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ Central Michigan (79.9%), vs Miami OH (57.8%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, it would make sense for Liberty to end up ranked higher than a 1-loss MAC champion, especially with the Flames already ranked ahead of Toledo in the CFP Rankings. Still, if they win out, the Rockets would have a case to be ahead of the Flames.
Miami (OH)
Record: 9-2, 6-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: Cincinnati (31-24)
Best non-P5 win: Ohio (#87 FPI)
Losses: Miami FL (38-3), Toledo (21-17)
Wins against teams with winning record: 2 (Bowling Green, Ohio)
FPI: 73
SOR: 36
SOS: 115
Sagarin: 81
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ Ball State (74.9%), vs Toledo (42.2%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, Liberty should be ahead of a 2-loss Miami Ohio even if they win out.
Mountain West
UNLV
Record: 9-2, 6-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: Vanderbilt (40-37)
Best non-P5 win: Air Force (#69 FPI)
Losses: #2 Michigan (35-7), Fresno State (31-24)
Wins against teams with winning record: 2 (Wyoming, Air Force)
FPI: 65
SOR: 35
SOS: 72
Sagarin: 63
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs San Jose State (57.9%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, Liberty should be ranked ahead of UNLV if they win out, but another loss would cement this case.
Others
Fresno State and Air Force suffered their third loss this week and are effectively eliminated from being able to be ranked ahead of Liberty as a potential G5 champion.
Air Force, Boise State, and San Jose State are still in the mix for the conference championship race. If either of them are able to knock off UNLV in the conference championship game, it would easily put the Flames ahead of the Mountain West’s conference champ.
Sun Belt
Troy
Record: 9-2, 6-1
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: South Alabama (#58 FPI)
Losses: #15 Kansas State (42-13), James Madison (16-14)
Wins against teams with winning record: 2 (Georgia State, Texas State)
FPI: 44
SOR: 34
SOS: 92
Sagarin: 47
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ Southern Miss (87.3%), vs TBD in championship game
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, Liberty should be ahead, but Troy is very close to the Flames in overall resume. Their two losses are very respectable, but they probably don’t have enough quality wins to overcome those losses against an unbeaten Liberty team.
