We enter the final week of the regular season with the CUSA regular season title still wide open and three teams still in the mix. Jacksonville State is 12-5 in conference play while Liberty and Middle Tennessee sit at 11-5. The Flames and Blue Raiders will meet in Murfreesboro, Tennessee on Thursday night. While Liberty controls its own destiny, the Flames could still be the 1, 2, or 3 seed in next week’s CUSA Tournament in Huntsville, Alabama. Let’s break down the Flames’ different paths.
Upcoming Schedules
Liberty (11-5)
- @ Middle Tennessee (11-5), Thursday
- @ Western Kentucky (7-9), Saturday
Middle Tennessee (11-5)
- vs Liberty (11-5), Thursday
- vs FIU (3-13), Saturday
Jax State (12-5)
- vs Kennesaw State, Saturday
If Liberty goes 2-0 this week
If the Flames go 2-0 this week, it’s pretty simple, Liberty will be the No. 1 seed in the CUSA Tournament. This is because the Flames would finish at 13-5, while MTSU could finish no better than 12-6. The Gamecocks could finish either 12-6 or 13-5 depending on their game against Kennesaw State on Saturday. Even if they beat the Owls, Jax State would be tied with Liberty for the regular season title. The Flames would win the tiebreaker due to going 2-0 against both Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State, the only teams that could finish in third place in this scenario. Jax State went 1-1 against both of those teams.
If Liberty goes 0-2 this week
The scenario for this path is more straight forward than if the Flames split this week, so we will start with the easy. If the Flames drop both games this week at Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, Liberty will be the 3-seed in next week’s conference tournament. Liberty would finish at 11-7 in conference play and be below both Jax State and Middle Tennessee, regardless of how they fare in their other games this week. Only one other team could get to 11-7 and that would be New Mexico State, who would have to beat both Louisiana Tech and Sam Houston on the road to get to 11-7. Even if the Aggies win both of those, Liberty would win the tie-breaker due to sweeping the season series against NMSU.
If Liberty goes 1-1 this week
We will break this up in the two different scenarios that could lead to the Flames going 1-1, as Liberty could either beat MTSU and then lose to WKU or lose to MTSU and then beat WKU. Let’s start with the first option, if Liberty beats Middle Tennessee and then loses to Western Kentucky:
In this scenario, the Flames would be in the top two of CUSA and would be either first or second depending on how Jax State does against Kennesaw. MTSU’s game Saturday against FIU wouldn’t matter in this scenario because Liberty would own the tie breaker with the Blue Raiders if they both finished at 12-6 due to sweeping the regular season series, in this scenario. If Jax State were to beat Kennesaw, the Flames would get the 2-seed as the Gamecocks would finish 13-5 and one game ahead of the Flames. If Jax State lost to Kennesaw, the Flames would get the 1-seed because both teams would finish tied for the regular season title at 12-6, but Liberty would win that tie breaker due to sweeping the #3 team in the conference (MTSU) while JSU went 1-1 against the Blue Raiders.
If Liberty loses to Middle Tennessee and then beats Western Kentucky, the Flames would finish conference play at 12-6. This could lead to Liberty either being the 1, 2 or 3 seed depending on how the Jax State vs Kennesaw and Jax State vs FIU games go. The Flames would get the 1-seed in this scenario if Jax State also loses to Kennesaw State and Middle Tennessee loses to FIU. The Flames would get the 2-seed in this scenario if Jax State loses to Kennesaw and Middle Tennessee beats FIU. The Flames would also get the 2-seed in this scenario if Jax State beats Kennesaw and Middle Tennessee loses to FIU. Liberty would get the 3-seed in this scenario if Jax State beats Kennesaw and Middle Tennessee beats FIU.
Liberty gets the 1-seed in these scenarios
- Goes 2-0 this week
- Beats MTSU AND loses to WKU AND Jax State loses to Kennesaw State
- Loses to MTSU AND beats WKU AND Jax State loses to Kennesaw AND MTSU loses to FIU
Liberty gets the 2-seed in these scenarios
- Beats MTSU AND loses to WKU AND Jax State beats Kennesaw State
- Loses to MTSU AND beats WKU AND Jax State loses to Kennesaw State AND MTSU beats FIU
- Loses to MTSU AND beats WKU AND Jax State beats Kennesaw State AND MTSU loses to FIU
Liberty gets the 3-seed in these scenarios
- Goes 0-2 this week
- Loses to MTSU AND beats WKU AND Jax State beats Kennesaw State AND MTSU beats FIU
Hopefully that is all more clear than mud.
If you are into statistics and probabilities, Team Rankings gives Liberty a 27.1% chance at the 1-seed, a 31.7% chance at the 2-seed, and a 41.2% chance at the 3-seed.
They give Jax State a 46.2% chance at the 1-seed, a 42.7% chance at the 2-seed, and an 11.1% chance at the 3-seed.
They give MTSU a 26.7% chance at the 1-seed, a 25.6% chance at the 2-seed, and a 47.2% chance at the 3-seed.
It should be an interesting week to conclude the regular season, and, ultimately, it might not matter too much what seed you get in the conference tournament. If there’s anything we should have learned through the CUSA season this year it is that anyone can literally beat anyone on any given night.
