With Liberty’s loss at home to Jacksonville State this past Saturday night, it seemed as though the likelihood of the Flames recovering to earn the No. 1 overall seed in next month’s ASUN Tournament was extremely low if not close to zero. However, since that loss, everything has gone in Liberty’s favor.

Most importantly, the Flames have rebounded with consecutive road victories against Kennesaw State and Bellarmine. That kept Liberty within striking distance. Then, the Gamecocks unexpectedly lost to North Florida at home by 12 points in a game JSU was favored by 13 points. The Ospreys were just 1-7 in ASUN play entering that game.

Here’s an updated look at the ASUN Standings following Thursday’s action:

ASUN EAST DIVISION
Liberty 7-1
Jacksonville 6-3
Kennesaw State 4-5
FGCU 4-5
Stetson 4-5
North Florida 2-7

ASUN WEST DIVISION
Jacksonville State 8-1
Bellarmine 7-2
Central Arkansas 3-5
Eastern Kentucky 3-6
Lipscomb 3-6
North Alabama 2-7

Eight of the 12 teams in the ASUN currently have losing conference records and will not be able to catch Liberty, Jacksonville State, and the other leaders to get to the No. 1 overall seed. So, the race for the No. 1 overall seed has effectively become a four-team race between Liberty, Jacksonville, Jacksonville State, and Bellarmine.

Why is it so important to get the No. 1 overall seed? You get to play at home throughout the ASUN Tournament. With 12 teams and two divisions in the conference this season, the top two seeds in each division gets a first round bye before hosting a quarterfinal game. The ASUN re-seeds the tournament based on upsets as the teams advance, but if you finish with the best record in the regular season, you assure yourself of playing at home for as long as you remain alive in the conference tournament.

Let’s take a look at each team and their remaining schedule.

LIBERTY

02/05 @ Eastern Kentucky
02/08 vs Lipscomb
02/12 @ Jacksonville
02/15 @ North Florida
02/19 vs Stetson
02/21 @ Central Arkansas
02/23 vs FGCU
02/26 vs Kennesaw State

The Flames, who are looking for a fourth straight regular season and tournament title, will be favored in every game the rest of the way. Now, that obviously doesn’t mean Liberty will win each game on its schedule. Saturday’s game at EKU won’t be easy. The Colonels were the preseason pick to finish 2nd in the league and challenge the Flames for the ASUN championship. Then, that road trip to Jacksonville to take on the Dolphins and Ospreys will be tricky.

KenPom currently predicts the Flames to finish 14-2 in ASUN play.

JACKSONVILLE

02/05 @ Jacksonville State
02/09 vs Eastern Kentucky
02/12 vs Liberty
02/16 @ Stetson
02/19 vs Kennesaw State
02/23 vs North Florida
02/26 @ FGCU

A couple weeks ago it looked like the Dolphins were on the precipice of being eliminated from this discussion as they had dropped three straight games, all on the road, to fall to 3-3 in ASUN play. Since that time though, Jacksonville has won three straight and have remained relevant in this discussion. They have a tough schedule the rest of the way though, beginning with Saturday’s game at Jacksonville State. They will also be an underdog against Liberty and have toss-up games at Stetson and FGCU and at home against Kennesaw State.

KenPom currently predicts the Dolphins to finish 10-6 in ASUN play.

JACKSONVILLE STATE

02/05 vs Jacksonville
02/09 @ Stetson
02/12 vs Central Arkansas
02/16 @ Lipscomb
02/20 @ Bellarmine
02/23 vs Eastern Kentucky
02/26 vs North Alabama

More than likely, it is going to come down to Liberty and Jacksonville State. With the win over the Flames in the only regular season meeting between the two teams this season, the Gamecocks have the upper-hand with the edge in the tiebreaker. While Thursday’s loss to UNF proves that anything can happen on any give night, Jacksonville State will be favored in most of its games the rest of the way. Saturday’s game against Jacksonville won’t be easy, and then their stretch of three straight, including the first two on the road, against Lipscomb, Bellarmine, and EKU, will be a challenge, as well.

KenPom currently predicts the Gamecocks to finish 13-3 in ASUN play.

BELLARMINE

02/05 vs Kennesaw State
02/09 @ North Florida
02/12 @ North Alabama
02/16 @ Central Arkansas
02/20 vs Jacksonville State
02/23 vs Lipscomb
02/26 @ Eastern Kentucky

Over the past two years, it has been Liberty and Bellarmine that have stood out among the rest of the ASUN teams. The Knights have only lost to the Flames and Gamecocks in conference play so far this season. Bellarmine has a tough remaining schedule with four of seven games being on the road. Their home slate isn’t the easiest lineup either with KSU, Jacksonville State, and Lipscomb.

KenPom currently predicts the Knights to finish 11-5 in ASUN play.

It is sure to be a fun final few weeks of the regular season with lots of twists and turns. There are few things in college sports as exciting as a men’s basketball conference season when a regular season title and home court in the conference tournament of a one-bid league is on the line. Buckle up for the rest of the ride.