Yes, by now we have all heard the news that Liberty’s long-anticipated matchup with Coastal Carolina has been canceled due to Covid concerns. However, that doesn’t mean that Liberty’s dreams of cracking the College Football Playoff rankings (the official rankings) are dead. It also doesn’t mean that LU fans should turn off the TV this weekend as some very key matchups could end up clearing a path for LU to enter into the official national rankings.
WHERE THINGS STAND:
Last weekend Liberty was left out of the CFP rankings for the second time since they were initially unveiled on the 24th of November. Liberty is currently ranked in both the AP and the Coaches poll at 25th but after the CFP debuts those polls aren’t as widely referred to. The assumption has to be that 9-1 Liberty with two Power 5 wins and only a single loss by 1 point to Power 5 team NC State is right on the cusp of being ranked. How close is hard to say as the Committee this year has shown a lot of emphasis on strength of schedule and a major bias to Power 5 programs (i.e 2 loss Iowa being ranked at 19th despite a loss to 2-3 Purdue to start the season and almost losing last weekend to 1-4 Nebraska). With a lot of bowl games already being canceled, there being no bowl eligibility requirements, and no automatic bowl tie in for the Flames, ending the season in the CFP Top 25 would greatly increase LU’s chances of getting a well-deserved invite to one of the coveted remaining bowl games.
THE PATH TO THE TOP 25
If Liberty had played and beat Coastal they would have definitely secured a slot in the CFP rankings, however, there is still a path to the Top 25 for the Flames but one or more of the following teams will need to lose
1. #25 Louisiana lose to Appalachian St. on Friday, 8:30 pm EST, ESPN.
App St is favored by 2.5 points and almost beat Coastal Carolina last weekend. Louisiana was added to the rankings based on their win against Iowa State to start the year but has struggled throughout the season to win games against very low-quality opponents. App State is likely not a threat to jump into the rankings ahead of LU with two losses already on their record.
2. #16 Wisconsin lose to #12 Indiana on Saturday, 3:30pm EST, ABC
Wisconsin fell out of the Top 10 two weeks ago after losing to Northwestern, if they lose to Indiana this weekend, they may fall out of the rankings altogether. Last week then #13 Iowa State barely beat then #17 Texas and it was enough to push the Longhorns out of the Top 25. If Indiana can win convincingly it might be enough to open up some room for LU. Wisconsin is favored by 14 points.
3. #19 Iowa lose to Illinois on Saturday, 3:30 pm EST, FS1
Iowa should have fallen out of the rankings last week after requiring a 4th quarter comeback to beat a very bad Nebraska team which is currently sitting at 1-4. Instead, the Committee moved them up 5 spots to #19! Illinois is not a very good football team this year but then neither are the Hawkeyes. If Illinois can hang around late in this one, they may have a chance to knock out one of the most over-ranked teams in the country. Iowa is favored by 13.5 points.
4. #24 Tulsa lose to Navy on Saturday, 3:30 pm EST, ESPN2
Tulsa is hanging around in the rankings despite narrow wins against East Carolina and Tulane in their recent games. Tulsa is clearly vulnerable right now and Navy’s option offense may be able to poke some holes in a Tulsa defense that allowed 30 points to ECU and 24 to Tulane. Tulsa is favored by 12 points.
5. #22 Washington lose to Stanford on Saturday, 4:00 pm EST, FOX
Washington has won two of their three games by 7 points or less and their best win was against an 0-3 Arizona team. Washington may not be as good a team as their 3-0 record reflects and this weekend’s matchups against Stanford may not go as smoothly as most experts predict. Washington is favored by 11.5 points.
6. #18 Coastal Carolina lose convincingly to #13 BYU on Saturday, 5:30 pm EST, ESPNU
BYU swooped in quickly to fill out their schedule with a much-needed Top 25 opponent after LU had to withdraw due to an outbreak of Covid which the Flames had previously managed to avoid all year. A simple win by BYU might not be enough to knock Coastal out of the Top 25 as the Chanticleers are undefeated and have a win over #25 Louisiana and UL’s opponent this weekend, Appalachian State. However, there are still strength of schedule concerns with Coastal’s record and a dominant drubbing by BYU may be enough to push them out of the rankings. BYU is favored by 10 points.
7. #23 Oregon lose to California on Saturday, 7:00 pm EST, ESPN
Oregon is still reeling after losing to in-state rival Oregon State last weekend. 0-3 California doesn’t look to be much of a challenge but then neither did 1-2 (at the time) Oregon State. Even if Cal loses, if they can keep the game close and force Oregon to only win by one possession it may be enough to drop the Ducks out of the Top 25. Oregon is favored by 9 points.
8. #20 USC lose to Washington State on Sunday, 7:30 pm EST, FS1
USC has not looked convincing this season with a one-point victory over winless Arizona State and a 4 point victory over winless Arizona. Washington State on the other hand is a bit of a misnomer with a nice 10 point win over Oregon State and then a crushing loss at the hands of Oregon. USC has not moved up one slot in either the AP or the CFP polls after entering at #20 in both of them, however, win or lose the Trojans should be seeing some movement this weekend with the hope by LU fans that it will be a downward trend. USC is favored by 13 points.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION:
If any one of the above-listed teams loses, it may be enough for LU to break into the CFP Top 25 despite not playing. However, without knowing how far back LU is (the CFP Committee doesn’t release next teams up numbers like the AP and Coaches polls do) it’s difficult to say how many dropouts would be necessary. 3-0 Colorado, 5-0 San Jose State, and 4-0 Western Michigan could all be threatening to jump in ahead of the Flames as well as any number of multi-loss Power 5 Teams based on their P5 status. However, I think it is a safe bet that if 3 of the 8 teams listed lost, LU would probably get in and if 4 of them lost, LU would almost definitely be in. I expect this to be an exciting weekend of college football with multiple upsets and unexpected outcomes. Liberty cracked into the AP Top 25 for the first time on a bye-week and I expect a similar outcome this week with the CFP rankings.
MY RANKING PREDICTION: Liberty enters the CFP rankings for the first time in school history at #24.
Written by Mr. Exclamation Point.
