Out to a 12-0 record this season, Liberty and first year head coach Jamey Chadwell are in serious contention for a New Year’s Six bowl invite.
At No. 24, the Flames are currently the second highest ranked Group of Five team behind Tulane who is No. 22.
The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion gets an automatic bid to one of those coveted bowl spots, and Liberty is one of probably only three teams that remain in serious consideration. How do the Flames compare to those other teams? We break down everyone’s resume, comparing them to Liberty’s, and detailing what Liberty must do to surpass them.
“Well, the most important thing is we have to win Friday,” Chadwell said of his team’s New Year’s Six chances. “It doesn’t matter what I think we deserve or earn unless we can finish the season, be a conference champion. That’s the number one priority, you have to be a conference champion. We have to be able to do that.”
“If we do, if we’re fortunate enough to be able to win the game, I think if you look at what we’ve been able to do, what our conference has been able to do, who our conference has been able to beat, who we’ve been able to beat, I think it stacks up against anybody that is being considered. I don’t have all the details in front of me. If we are fortunate enough to win the game, you can bet I will have them Friday night.”
Let’s start with the Flames’ resume.
Liberty
Record: 12-0, 8-0
CFP Ranking: 24
AP/Coaches Ranking: 20/22
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Jacksonville State (#82 FPI)
Losses: N/A
Wins against bowl eligible teams: 5 (Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion)
FPI: 48
SOR: 15
SOS: 133
Sagarin: 53
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs New Mexico State (82.1%)
AMERICAN
Championship Game: SMU @ Tulane, Saturday, Dec. 2, 4 p.m., ABC
Tulane
Record: 11-1, 8-0
CFP Ranking: 22
AP/Coaches Ranking: 17/18
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Memphis (#53 FPI)
Losses: #20 Ole Miss (37-20)
Wins against bowl eligible teams: 3 (Memphis, UTSA, Rice)
FPI: 50
SOR: 17
SOS: 110
Sagarin: 52
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs SMU (28.4%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
No, Tulane is already ranked ahead of the Flames in the CFP rankings. If they win Saturday, they will stay ahead of Liberty and be the G5 representative in a New Year’s Six bowl game.
SMU
Record: 10-2, 8-0
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: 25/24
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: Memphis (#56 FPI)
Losses: #18 Oklahoma (28-11), TCU (34-17)
Wins against bowl eligible teams: 2 (Memphis, Rice)
FPI: 20
SOR: 25
SOS: 82
Sagarin: 32
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): @ Tulane (71.6%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
SMU would be an interesting case. They have strong computer numbers, but haven’t really beaten anybody. They did pick up a nice win over Memphis a couple weeks ago. A win over Tulane in the conference championship game would certainly be better than any win Liberty has. Would it be enough to jump over the Flames?
Mid-American
Championship Game: Miami OH @ Toledo, Saturday, Dec. 2, 12 p.m., ESPN
Toledo
Record: 11-1, 8-0
CFP Ranking: N/A
AP/Coaches Ranking: 23/N/A
P5 wins: N/A
Best non-P5 win: San Jose State (#64 FPI)
Losses: Illinois (30-28)
Wins against bowl eligible teams: 5 (San Jose State, Miami OH, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan)
FPI: 57
SOR: 29
SOS: 132
Sagarin: 59
Remaining schedule (% chance to win): vs Miami OH (59.7%)
Would Liberty be ranked ahead if both teams win out?
Yes, Liberty would end up ranked higher than a 1-loss MAC champion, especially with the Flames already ranked ahead of Toledo in the CFP Rankings. Plus, a win over a 10-win New Mexico State team will be looked on more favorable than a win over Miami Ohio.
Miami (OH)
Miami would not be able to jump the Flames if they win the MAC Championship.
Mountain West
Championship Game: Boise State vs UNLV, Saturday, Dec. 2, 3 p.m., FOX
Neither Boise State or UNLV, as the Mountain West champ, would be ranked ahead of Liberty.
Sun Belt
Championship Game: Appalachian State @ Troy, Saturday, Dec. 2, 4 p.m., ESPN
Neither Appalachian State or Troy, as the Sun Belt champ, would be ranked ahead of Liberty.
For the Flames, Liberty, obviously, must defeat New Mexico State on Friday night for the CUSA championship. Do that, and be big fans of SMU over Tulane on Saturday for the AAC championship. If SMU wins, it gives Liberty a pretty good chance to be the highest ranked G5 conference champion and that coveted NY6 spot. With SMU being unranked entering championship weekend, it seems unlikely they would jump the Flames if both teams win their respective conference championship.
