During this week’s press conference, Liberty’s starting quarterback Josh Woodrum took the mic and addressed the current state of the team.

In this, Woodrum proclaimed that, regardless of the recent losses, the season wasn’t over. Following this, he had a Tebow-esk moment. He stated that “We’re [Liberty] going to win every single one of (our remaining games). We’re going to be 7-4. We’re going to go to the playoffs.”

Of course this is what we want: Someone to stand up for the team and put the negative thoughts to sleep.

But the question is: Can Liberty really still make the playoffs?
Let’s break it down starting with the Flames.

Liberty’s Record:

  • 3-4
  • 0-2 in the Big South

Now look at the rest of the Big South.

Coastal Carolina’s Record:

  • 6-0
  • 1-0 in the Big South

Charleston Southern’s Record:

  • 5-1
  • 2-0 in the Big South

Kennesaw State’s Record:

  • 5-1
  • 1-0 in the Big South

Gardner-Webb’s Record:

  • 2-4
  • 1-1 in the Big South

Monmouth’s Record:

  • 3-4
  • 1-1 in the Big South

Presbyterian’s Record:

  • 1-6
  • 0-2 in the Big South

The first thing to discuss is the automatic bid. In order for Liberty win the conference the following will have to take place:

  1. Win the rest of their games. That is: vs. Kennesaw State, Presbyterian, and Coastal. And @ Charleston Southern. Kennesaw State’s option is very difficult to defend. Presbyterian kept it very close with Coastal and CSU, but couldn’t get the wins. And of course CSU and Coastal are nationally ranked.
  2. The Big South will basically have to tear itself apart. The Flames currently sit at 0-2. Every other team will need to have at least 2 losses on the season for the automatic bid to be a possibility.
woodrum2

QB Josh Woodrum reads Villanova’s defense.

Chances of this happening:
Slim-to-none.

The second thing to discuss, and probably what Woodrum was alluding to, is the at-large bid. The FCS playoffs consist of 24 teams, with the number of automatic bids sitting at 10. That leaves 14 spots for teams that weren’t able to win their conference, but still deserve a chance to make a run for the championship.

With the at-large bid, a team’s schedule is dissected, wins and losses are weighed, and other variables are taken into consideration. A committee then appoints the at-large teams to the playoffs.

So how does Liberty’s chances look in getting the at-large bid?

  • The Flames beat Delaware State week 1. The Hornets are currently 0-6. So this win means squat.
  • Week 2 Liberty traveled to Morgantown and lost to FBS opponent West Virginia. When it comes to FBS games, a loss really means nothing as FCS teams are generally expected to lose. Of course a win here could have made this a totally different conversation.
  • 8th ranked Montana came to Lynchburg to take part in one of the biggest games Williams Stadium has ever seen. Liberty knew the importance of this game and got the win. Unfortunately, the Griz are currently 3-3, and sit on the at-large bubble.
  • Liberty went on the road to Southern Illinois in week 4 and most weren’t surprised by their loss, but with SIU at 2-4 it’s not a good loss.
  • The Flames bounced back against FBS opponent Georgia State in week 5. Even if it’s GSU, a FBS win is a FBS win. The Panthers are 2-4.
  • What a disappointment Gardner-Webb week was. Liberty lost to one of worst Big South teams. Gardner-Webb sits at 2-4 right now.
  • The Flames lost to another mediocre football team in Monmouth this past week. The Hawks are 3-4.

The losses to Gardner-Webb and
Monmouth dim Liberty’s once bright light on playoff aspirations. But it should be noted that even with these two losses, Liberty is still receiving votes for the top 25 teams in the nation.

Some other things to consider:

The current record for teams Liberty has beaten: 5-13.
The current record for teams that beat Liberty: 10-15.

Should Liberty win their next four games, they will have:
3 wins over top 25 teams.
1 win over a FBS team.

Abnar

RB D.J. Abnar runs through Georgia State defenders.

What will the Flames have to do to get the at-large bid?

  1. Win. Liberty will have to win, and win impressively. They will have to look like a dominate team that deserves a chance at the national championship.
  2. Help. Liberty needs this season’s former opponents to win games so the losses don’t look so bad. get better.
  3. Get hot. If Liberty gets on a roll, the FCS Playoff Committee will take note when considering their selection of at-large teams.
  4. Hope. Hope that other teams on the playoff bubble slip up and make room for them to jump in.

Chances of this happening: Better than the conference bid, but still extremely slim.

I admire Woodrum’s poise. It is exactly what this team needs right now. But the reality of this proclamation is that many things outside of Liberty’s control will have to take place.

I know good and well that this team is capable of winning their next 4 games and I hope they do. But until the end of the season rolls around, it will be difficult to truly gauge whether or not the Flames have a legitimate chance of making a run at the national championship.