It’s been more than a week since we last took a peak at the ever evolving world of conference realignment. While there have been few big headline moves since Conference USA added Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee State at the end of November, there are still plenty of rumors swirling as schools chase the most lucrative deals. Let’s indulge in some good old fashion speculation based on a few of the rumors flying. Obviously the conferences that are most relevant to Liberty are Conference USA, the Sun Belt, and the Big East. You could also include the now on life support WAC, and the Mountain West in the equation.
Let’s start with the Mountain West/Big East-Conference USA-Sun Belt food chain. Obviously the Big East acquisition of East Carolina and Tulane from Conference USA led to Conference USA poaching Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee State from the Sun Belt. This leaves the Sun Belt with 8 football teams. The most current speculation has Georgia Southern, App State, Liberty, Lamar, New Mexico State, and Idaho as the main candidates to fill those 2 empty spots. Of course, the Sun Belt could revisit their earlier decision to stay at 10 teams, and go to 12 and enter the conference championship game market.
Several of our sources have confirmed that the Mountain West is likely to dip into the Conference USA pool as well. This will likely set off yet another trickle down as C-USA will be forced to pull more teams from the Sun Belt, or cease to exist as we know them now. Should that occur, all bets will be off. The Sun Belt could continue to pull FCS teams into the fold, merge with Conference USA, or cease to exist in football altogether as is likely the case with the WAC.
So again, what does this mean for Liberty, and our hopes for FBS membership? Here are a few scenarios…
Sun Belt expands to 12 football members
This scenario is the most likely path to Liberty gaining FBS membership. Should the Sun Belt only expand to 10 teams, Liberty getting an invitation is about a 50/50 proposition. Wherever the Mountain West-Conference USA-Sun Belt food chain goes from there, Liberty will almost definitely have a conference home. A Conference USA-Sun Belt merger would be a possibility if the Mountain West does raid C-USA, as would be a Conference USA invite for the Flames.
Sun Belt stays at 10, but is again raided by Conference USA
This is slightly less desirable, because the Sun Belt would be increasingly unstable. If “the belt” adds Georgia Southern and App State, but is soon robbed of Western Kentucky and Florida International, Liberty would be a frontrunner to join the league.
Conference USA is raided by Mountain West, and invites Liberty as a replacement
This may not be as likely, but it is possible that Conference USA invites Liberty should the Mountain West take a handful of teams from them. Liberty fits well in the C-USA footprint, and would be a natural rival to ODU, and UNC-Charlotte.
There are literally unlimited scenarios to dream up, but these seem the most likely at this point. Other scenarios include a revived WAC-East concept, a Mountain West/Conference USA superconference, and a Big East/Conference USA superconference. Stay tuned, it’s going to continue to be interesting.
