Week 3 finally got us somewhere. Until next week, of course, when all of our assumptions will be proved woefully inaccurate. There were some quality match ups, some surprises, and some confirmations of what we thought we knew. It’s hard to believe the meat of the season is now on our plate, and in a few weeks these projections will not be way too early.
How last year’s playoff teams did in Week 3:
#1 North Dakota State (3-0): Beat #13 Iowa (FBS) 23-21
#4 Jacksonville State (2-1): Beat #17 Coastal Carolina 27-26
#2 Richmond (2-1): Lost to Stony Brook (Really Danny?) 42-14
#12 Charleston Southern (1-2): Idle
#15 Citadel (3-0): Beat Gardner Webb 31-24
#6 Chattanooga (3-0): Beat Furman 21-14
Fordham (1-1): Idle
#22 New Hampshire (1-2): Lost to Dartmouth 22-21
#23 Colgate (1-1): Beat Yale 55-13
#3 Sam Houston State(2-0): Beat Lamar 44-31
Southern Utah (1-1): Idle
#14 McNeese State (1-2): Lost to SF Austin 31-28
#11 JMU (2-1): Lost to North Carolina (FBS) 56-28
#7 Montana (2-0): Idle
#9 South Dakota State (1-2): Lost to Cal Poly 38-31
#10 Northern Iowa (1-2): Lost to #8 Eastern Washington 34-30
Eastern Illinois (2-1): Beat #5 Illinois State 24-21
#13 William & Mary (2-1): Beat Norfolk State 35-10
Duquesne (2-1): Beat Dayton 34-20
Dayton (2-1): Lost to Duquesne 34-20
#16 Western Illinois (2-0): Idle
#19 Portland State (1-2): Lost to #8 Washington (FBS) 41-3
#5 Illinois State (2-1): Lost to Eastern Illinois 24-21
#17 Coastal Carolina (2-1): Lost to #4 Jacksonville State 27-26 (Coastal not eligible for FCS playoffs in 2016)
Other Notable Results:
#21 Villanova (2-1) beat Towson (1-2) 40-21
#20 Youngstown State (2-1) beat Robert Morris (0-3) 38-6
#25 Albany (3-0) beat Holy Cross (1-2) 45-28
Here are the projections after Week 3
National Seeds:
1 North Dakota State* (MVFC) – The Bison keep doing what they do. This time, the Big Ten’s #13 Iowa paid the price for putting NDSU on the schedule. The 5 time champs have played 3 close games, but have won them all. Tough to argue with a #1 ranking and seeding at this point.
2 Jacksonville State* (OVC) – Jax State bounced back from a tough night in Baton Rouge with a close win over Coastal Carolina. The Gamecocks benefit from Richmond and Illinois State losing to FCS opponents this week, and find themselves at the #2 spot. Next up for Jax State, a trip to Williams Stadium, where an eager Buckshot Calvert could await them.
3 Sam Houston State* (Southland) – SHSU held serve against Lamar this week, and looks like a solid pick out of the Southland.
4 Chattanooga* (SoCon) – A 7 point win over Furple won’t exactly turn heads for the Mocs, but they are almost definitely the class of the SoCon this season. An October 15 date with Citadel is the only standing in the way of a National Seed for Chattanooga.
5 JMU* (CAA) – Tough to hold a Power 5 loss against an FCS team. The Dukes have looked like a quality team so far this season, and were very much in this game against the Tarheels at halftime. With Richmond’s loss to Stony Brook, the Dukes are looking like a contender in the CAA.
6 Illinois State – A loss to another playoff team isn’t horrible, but the Redbirds have to be disappointed in dropping an in-state rivalry game to Eastern Illinois. Plenty of time for Illinois State to get on track, with lots of opportunities for quality wins on the schedule.
7 Richmond – We’ve seen this movie before, right? Danny Rocco takes the trip up to Long Island, only to get sent packing by Stony Brook. This one was pretty shocking though. Not only because Richmond had looked so good, but they lost pretty badly to the Sea Wolves.
8 Eastern Washington* (Big Sky) – EWU earned a big win over Northern Iowa this week. The Eagles now have a win over a PAC-12 team and a top-10 FCS opponent. An OT loss to NDSU doesn’t look too bad either. Circle October 29 on your calendar, as Eastern takes on Montana in what could decide the Big Sky autobid.
In:
Charleston Southern* (Big South)
Western Illinois
Northern Iowa
Montana
Stony Brook
Youngstown State
South Dakota State
William & Mary
Citadel
Duquesne* (NEC)
Colgate* (Patriot)
Dayton* (Pioneer)
Portland State
Villanova
Eastern Illinois
Albany
*Conference Auto-Bid
Where is Liberty?
The Flames didn’t do anything to hurt their chances in the eyes of the committee this week, but they did miss a big opportunity to turn heads against an AAC opponent. SMU didn’t look like an FBS team, and Liberty didn’t look like an FCS contender, constantly shooting themselves in the foot and refusing to take a winnable game. So, LU still sits on the outside looking in. That could change quickly this week though. A win against top 5 Jax State would almost definitely propel Liberty’s status in the way too early projections. A loss puts them in peril of near elimination from at-large contention. Even so, the Big South is up for grabs, and the Flames could be poised to run the table in conference, especially if Coach Gill can get improved efficiency at the QB position from either Calvert or Masha.
