Week 5…yep. The MVFC, CAA, and Big Sky schedules really seem to muddy the waters about who is good and who is not. They just beat each other so often, no one knows who will win. It makes for great week to week drama, but miserable projections. This is the last week for “Way Too Early” projections though. Next week will be the halfway point of the season and our guesses can get a little more educated.
How last year’s playoff teams did in Week 5:
#1 North Dakota State (4-0): Beat #18 Illinois State 31-10
#3 Jacksonville State (3-1): Idle
#7 Richmond (4-1): Beat Towson 31-28
#10 Charleston Southern (3-2): Beat #14 Coastal Carolina 59-58
#9 Citadel (4-0): Beat Western Carolina 37-14
#5 Chattanooga (5-0): Beat ETSU 37-7
Fordham (2-2): Lost to Monmouth 42-41
New Hampshire (3-2): Beat #19 William & Mary 21-12
Colgate (1-3): Lost to Cornell (Ever heard of it?) 39-38
#2 Sam Houston State(4-0): Beat SF Austin 63-28
Southern Utah (2-2): Lost to #11 Montana 43-20
#23 McNeese State (3-2): Beat Nicholls 38-13
#7 JMU (4-1): Beat Delaware 43-20
#11 Montana (3-1): Beat Southern Utah 43-20
#15 South Dakota State (2-2): Beat #8 Western Illinois 52-14
#12 Northern Iowa (2-2): Beat Southern Illinois 42-21
#13 Eastern Illinois (3-2): Lost to SE Missouri State 21-14
#19 William & Mary (2-3): Lost to New Hampshire 21-12
Duquesne (3-2): Beat Jacksonville 54-35
Dayton (3-2): Beat Drake 35-10
#8 Western Illinois (3-1): Lost to #15 South Dakota State 52-14
Portland State (2-3): Beat Idaho State 45-20
#18 Illinois State (2-3): Lost to North Dakota State 31-10
#14 Coastal Carolina (3-2): Lost to #10 Charleston Southern 59-58 (Coastal not eligible for FCS playoffs in 2016)
Other Notable Results:
#16 Cal Poly (3-2): Lost to North Dakota 31-24
#24 Indiana State (3-2): Lost to Missouri State 45-24
Here are the projections after Week 5
National Seeds:
1 North Dakota State* (MVFC) – Routine win for the Bison over a now reeling Illinois State team.
2 Sam Houston State* (Southland) – SHSU is 4-0 and 3-0 in the Southland already. This weeks 63 points against SF Austin was a thumping. Doesn’t look like this is a team with a lot of weaknesses.
3 Jacksonville State* (OVC) – JSU had the week off, but they remain in our top 3.
4 Chattanooga* (SoCon) – ETSU were Chatt’s latest victims. At 5-0, it’s hard to imagine the Mocs dropping an FCS game. But Citadel looms on 10/15.
5 Eastern Washington* (Big Sky) – EWU is looking like the best team in the Big Sky, with another good win this week, putting up 63 points against UC Davis.
6 JMU* (CAA) – The Dukes remain undefeated in FCS and go to 2-0 in the CAA with a convincing win over Delaware. Barring a collapse, JMU looks playoff bound.
7 Charleston Southern* (Big South) – The Bucs find themselves back in the seedings this week after a big win on Coastal’s home turf. Putting up 59 points on the Beach Chickens should put any concerns over CSU’s QB situation to rest.
8 Richmond – The #8 seed was really up in the air this week. There are several teams with an argument, but absent a compelling one, Richmond keeps it. Their hard earned win against Towson wasn’t exactly impressive, but the Spiders got it done.
In:
Western Illinois
North Dakota
Northern Iowa
Montana
Illinois State
Youngstown State
South Dakota State
New Hampshire
Citadel
Wagner* (NEC)
Fordham* (Patriot)
San Diego* (Pioneer)
Cal Poly
Villanova
Eastern Illinois
Albany
*Conference Auto-Bid
Where is Liberty?
Buckshot’s record passing day aside, there wasn’t anything to change Liberty’s place on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. The Flames enter the bye week now, and will start a 5 game Big South season that will decide their fate. Liberty can probably afford to lose 1 of these games, as long as it is not Charleston Southern. CSU is a must win for the Flames to nab the Big South auto bid. Why can they lose to anyone else in conference? It’s simple really. If LU finishes 4-1 in the Big South with a win over CSU, CSU will finish no better than 4-1 as well. Liberty would take the tie breaker with the head to head win. The only other possible path to the playoffs for the Flames goes something like this. Liberty wins the first 4 games of their Big South slate convincingly, before dropping a competitive game to Charleston Southern. That puts Liberty in the position of having to go to Conway and beating Coastal convincingly to finish the season. Then, and only then, would the committee even look at a 7-4 Liberty team for an at-large bid. I still think they would take another MVFC team over an LU club with 1 quality win on the season. But, it is possible. Liberty needs to beat Charleston Southern and win the Big South.
