We made it to my third week of living the blog life! If this were a third date on the mountain I might get to hold a hand after a group trip to Sub Connection. I’m told our numbers are growing weekly and I’ve been officially cleared of all wrongdoing in the recycling scandal (Statute of Limitations save the day!) After getting through the bye week we finally have some Liberty Football that we can plan our Saturday around. Pumpkin and Apple picking szn is in the books so there’s no excuse to miss what could be a nationally historic win for the Flames. But first…
(replace yeah, with the word blog, all 94 times)
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 21-24
I have no one to blame but myself. Accountability is everything. That’s what every prayer leader I ever had told me (including the one I dated for six months). Ol’ RLS had no idea that NC States QB was out until an ASOR fan DM’ed me letting me know. While they won the game because Tech is cheeks, they didn’t cover. Fine. Saturday however, we went 2-2. It would have been positive but there was a holding call that took back a pick-six at 12:20 am in Hawaii. Lessons learned: Stop picking games during the week (spoiler alert I don’t follow my own advice). I’m still within striking distance of .500 and with two months left I got a ton of room to gallop.
Week Ten
I legit have no idea it’s week ten already. It feels like two weeks ago was UAB and I was riding Kansas every week but time flies when you’re having fun. And when your team is 7-1 it’s hard not to have any fun. Sure there are a million rumors about HCHF but when you have the hottest girl at the dance everyone’s going to take notice. Take your mind off of all the hullabaloo and enjoy the fact that there is football on every day for like a month. MACtion had kicked off and I do recommend taking a week to see how the cards fall before you try and make and picks. We got some great games this weekend with all eyes on UGA/UT and let’s take a dive and see if we can inch closer to that .500 record.
Friday Night: Uconn -15.5 against UMass
For those Day One fans of the Liberty Line I faded UCONN against Utah State and it was a terrible pick. UCONN scored the first drive and I knew it was curtains. But that was then and this is now. UCONN just beat BC and is riding a ton of momentum. The game is home on a Friday night and I can’t imagine there’s anything better to do in the entire state of Connecticut than go to this game. They’re 7-2 ATS this year while Umass (more like UTrash right Turtle?!) is 3-5. The Huskies are going to end up on the brink of being bowl-eligible heading into their final two games.
Saturday Slate
Yeah, I know. I said no more games before Saturday but rules are meant to be broken(that’s what I told my prayer leaders). When you see a number you like you have to jump on it. Ideally, we can head into the full day of games with a win under our belt. I’m not touching any of the noon games because it’s Breeders Cup Day. If you even slightly enjoy the Kentucky Derby I recommend checking it out. The best horses from all over the world compete in major races all day. Back to football!
I would be remiss not to include the marquee game of the week and maybe of the year up to this point. La. Tech MTSU. Kidding! Obviously, all eyes are going to be on the geriatric quarterback bowl between Tennessee and Georgia. This is the second time this year UT is in one of these “game of the year” games and last time it ended with goalposts being thrown into a river. This time they’re in Athens catching a touchdown and then some. Can’t say you often see the number-one team in the country getting points. The over-under in this game is 66.5 which is a ton of points for a Georgia team that only allows 10 points a game. UT has only played two games on the road this year; one away against Pitt where they struggled and another at LSU which was a noon game. Can they stroll into Athens and score a ton of points? I don’t think so. In both away games for UT the under hit and UGA unders at home are 2-4. Take the under and root for a tight, grind-it-out game.
Georgia/Tennesse Under 66.5
Shortly after that game’s kick, we have our ranked Liberty Flames facing off against Arkansas. Most people expected a multiple-touchdown spread and that’s what we got. The line opened at 14 and it’s been hovering around there the entire time. Like I said on the podcast I’ve officially retired from picking Liberty with the spread. I just can’t do it. I do personally think they can keep it within two touchdowns but like I said I’m retired. That leaves me with looking at the over-under which is currently at 64. We know Liberty has a great defense and they’ve shown up at every turn. I expect them to keep UA in check throughout the game and avoid quick scoring drives. On the other side, it’s worth asking was the offensive explosion against BYU it the Cougars being terrible, or were Liberty and JB figuring it all out? To me, it was a combo. I don’t think they’ll be able to score 40 points on an SEC defense. This game should be slowed down with both teams running the ball more than they throw it I can see this being a game in the 50s.
(Fun fact LU hasn’t hit an under on the road and UA hasn’t hit an under at home. Streaks eventually end. Just ask Cal Ripkin and the Undertaker)
Liberty/Arkansas Under 64 (sprinkle LU ML and the under in a parlay for +800 or better. If LU wins it’s because of the defense so it’s worth it).
We got a couple of night games we’re gonna take a chance on and the first one features a former opponent. Boise State squares off with BYU on the blue turf. I personally think BYU is a dead team walking. They’ve lost their last four straight and haven’t covered a spread since week two. On the flip side, Boise has won their last four straight up and ATS. They’re going to run the ball similarly to the way we did and I’m confident the Broncos can win by over a touchdown. This line hasn’t moved much but has hovered around 7-8.5 points with BYU being the underdog. Give me the team with momentum every day.
Plus, if you’re curious about what happens to a team after their coach leaves for Auburn this is the game to check out.
Boise State -7.5 against BYU
One final game to cap off week ten and I’m going to the state that’s been my go-to all year. Kansas. Although this time, we’re heading to Manhatten! K-State has been bubbling as a team the last couple of years and as I said on the pod, Deuce Vaughn is the real deal. The Wildcats are home dogs currently catching two and a half with the Longhorns coming to town. Texas is taking public money because they’re Texas. What they don’t realize is Sark is terrible on the road and they’re 1-2 away from the real ML and ATS this year alone. The Little Apple is a sneaky tough place to play to give me the points and end the week with the win!
KSU +2.5 against Texas
Alright, there you have it! A ton of football coming up over the next month and the fact that I’m treading water makes me feel good. I did more research this week so hopefully, we can cash some tickets. As always, don’t bet the offering plate money.
