College basketball fans are starting to feel the looming shadow of March. Some teams are anxious to compete and demonstrate their elite status, while others are simply fighting for a chance to get into the tournament and shake things up. The Flames are one of those teams with an uncertain future, even though they have hit their groove over the last eight weeks.
Let’s take a look at the likelihood of three potential results as we brace for the stretch run and post-season:
1. The Flames win every remaining game during ASUN play and into the ASUN Tournament.
I believe this is more likely than KenPom does. KenPom gives this outcome only a 4.1 percent chance at happening. The ASUN is a unique conference when it comes to predictions and outcomes. As of today, there are only two undefeated teams in the conference (Liberty, Jacksonville State) and one team with no wins (North Florida). Florida Gulf Coast played Liberty exceptionally tight, yet they sit in the middle of the ASUN East with a 2-4 record. There has been a number of disjointed games in the ASUN that have not gone according to predictions.
Why does this matter? Ultimately, it means the ASUN conference opponents will be quite unpredictable. Between COVID protocol and unreliable team performances, it will be a dog fight to finish the season well. Still, the Flames have played exceptional and made easy work of their conference games except for the aforementioned FGCU game.
If the Flames win out, the predicted outcome is a 14 seed, although I don’t think this is the most likely outcome. I believe the Flames will be a likely 12 seed if they win out due to the performance of their early opponents and the simple fact that Darius will bring in revenue for the tournament as he continues to excel nationally.
2. The Flames finish with a 14-2 or 13-3 record in the ASUN.
As much as all Flames’ fans are hoping for smooth sailing into the post-season tournament, it would be very difficult. In that case, if Liberty drops two or three games they are looking at a 15 seed tournament placement, according to Bart Torvik. This would be unfortunate, but not the end of the world. There’s also a chance the exploits of Darius McGhee and Liberty’s recent success gives them the benefit of the doubt and jump up to the 14-seed line.
Upsets are possible and the Flames can scrap their way through a game with a Power Five type of team. ECU is nowhere near that level of competition, but the Flames have shown previous flashes of handling their business just fine in the upper realm of the NCAA. If the Diamond Head Classic is an indication of our potential then the largest takeaway is that Darius has to play at the peak of his powers and the team has to be a united front defensively.
3. The Flames struggle down the stretch and finish around 10-6 in ASUN play.
If for some unfortunate reason the Flames end with an ASUN record of around 10-6 or worse, they will be hoping for a 15-seed and could slip to a 16. Thankfully, I think this outcome is very, very unlikely for the Flames and would be the result of some bad luck and possibly key pieces missing multiple games.
The good news is the Flames are the projected ASUN winners and have been since the season started. I hold to the belief they will win out and win the ASUN tournament, receiving an automatic bid and a favorable seed.
