Before the AP poll gets released at 2 pm eastern time Sunday, let’s revisit the steps that I laid out this week on how Liberty (on a bye-week) could potentially find its way into the Top 25.
Step 1. TULSA NEEDS TO LOSE (Result: Tulsa 34 vs East Carolina 30)
Well, this didn’t happen. In an extremely close game, Tulsa managed to score the go-ahead touchdown against the 1-4 Pirates. Tulsa was helped out on the drive-by two of the worst calls of the weekend, one of which overturned an obvious fumble (shocking the announcers) and the other confirmed a highly questionable catch on fourth down. However, even though Tulsa didn’t lose, they did not look good in the matchup against the beleaguered ECU Pirates and the poor showing should be enough to keep them from jumping the inactive Flames this week.
Step 2. MEMPHIS NEEDS TO LOSE (Result: #7 Cincinnati 49 vs Memphis 10)
Memphis hung around in the first half but got blown out in the second. The Tigers are now 3-2 and shouldn’t be challenging the Flames anytime soon. Liberty will certainly jump Memphis this week.
Step 3. LIBERTY NEEDS ONE OF THE FOLLOWING TOP 25 TEAMS TO LOSE: #22 SMU, #24 OKLAHOMA OR #25 BOISE STATE (Result: All three won in dramatic fashion)
This was probably the most important step of the three and it was a complete dud as all three won their matchups by high margins (the closest game was SMU vs Navy which saw the Mustangs win by only 14 points thanks to a last-ditch effort by the Midshipmen to mount a late comeback). However, there is still hope for the Flames as #18 Penn State and #16 Kansas State both were dominated in their matchups. Penn State lost to Ohio State 38-25 in a game that wasn’t ever close and only looked better due to some late scoring by Penn State in the fourth. Kansas State fared even worse, with a 37-10 beat down against unranked West Virginia. I didn’t originally factor these two teams into my third step because I thought that even in a loss they would have too far to fall to drop out of the rankings, but after unexpectedly abysmal performances this week, both of these teams are likely on their way out.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION
Only one of the three steps ended working out as it was supposed to for the Flames, but in the wacky world of College Football sometimes that’s all you need. Tulsa is unlikely to jump the Flames after a sub-par performance against ECU and after Oklahoma State (the Golden Hurricanes’ lone loss of the season) lost to unranked Texas and Memphis is out of the picture after a loss to Cincinnati. Liberty would have a clear path to the Top 25, assuming at least one team fell out, but for the aforementioned win by Texas over OSU. The Longhorns may be in a position to pole vault over the Flames after knocking off a Top 10 team and one of their two losses being to ranked Oklahoma. If Liberty wants to get into the rankings, they probably need two teams to fall out and it is this writer’s opinion that Penn State and Kansas State will be outside of the rankings when they are released.
